IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v63y2022ics157230892200078x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An investigation into feedback and spatial relationships between banks’ share prices and sovereign bond spreads during the euro crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Gibson, Heather D.
  • Hall, Stephen G.
  • Petroulas, Pavlos
  • Tavlas, George S.

Abstract

We examine (1) spillover effects between euro-area sovereigns and banking systems within national jurisdictions and (2) cross-country spillovers among ten countries during the euro-area crisis. We find that cross-country spillovers substantially amplify the doom loops between the sovereign and banking sectors. We also provide a test that supports the hypothesis that cross-country spillovers among southern-euro-area countries were of a different order from the spillovers among northern-euro-area countries. Our results also imply that, if shocks are idiosyncratic, spillover effects may help in reducing the impact for northern countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Tavlas, George S., 2022. "An investigation into feedback and spatial relationships between banks’ share prices and sovereign bond spreads during the euro crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:63:y:2022:i:c:s157230892200078x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S157230892200078X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101056?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badi H. Baltagi, 2015. "Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: Solutions Manual for Econometrics, edition 3, chapter 0, pages 233-257, Springer.
    2. Badi Baltagi & Alain Pirotte, 2011. "Seemingly unrelated regressions with spatial error components," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 5-49, February.
    3. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2017. "Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 371-385.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    5. Carlo Altavilla & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2017. "Bank Exposures and Sovereign Stress Transmission," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2103-2139.
    6. Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Reactions of real yields and inflation expectations to forward guidance in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(26), pages 2671-2682, June.
    7. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2004. "Estimation of simultaneous systems of spatially interrelated cross sectional equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 27-50.
    8. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano & Ricardo Reis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "ESBies: safety in the tranches," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 175-219.
    10. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2014. "Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing of Sovereigns and the Greek Financial Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 405-419.
    11. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    12. Xiaodong Liu & Paulo Saraiva, 2019. "GMM estimation of spatial autoregressive models in a system of simultaneous equations with heteroskedasticity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 359-385, April.
    13. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2020. "Avoiding the fall into the loop: Isolating the transmission of bank-to-sovereign distress in the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Kallestrup, René & Lando, David & Murgoci, Agatha, 2016. "Financial sector linkages and the dynamics of bank and sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 374-393.
    15. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges, 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation and Lagrange multiplier tests for panel seemingly unrelated regressions with spatial lag and spatial errors: An application to hedonic housing prices in Paris," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 24-42, January.
    16. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    17. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    18. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Andritzky, Jochen & Jobst, Andreas & Nowak, Sylwia & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2012. "Market response to policy initiatives during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 162-177.
    19. Badi H. Baltagi & Ying Deng, 2015. "EC3SLS Estimator for a Simultaneous System of Spatial Autoregressive Equations with Random Effects," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 659-694, December.
    20. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    21. Uhlig Harald, 2014. "Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 23-41, February.
    22. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-533, May.
    23. Bahaj, Saleem, 2020. "Sovereign spreads in the Euro area: Cross border transmission and macroeconomic implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 116-135.
    24. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael & Zhu, Zheyi, 2022. "The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    25. Pisani-Ferry, Jean, 2013. "The known unknowns and unknown unknowns of European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 6-14.
    26. Ahmad, Mahyudin & Hall, Stephen G., 2017. "Economic growth and convergence: Do institutional proximity and spillovers matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1065-1085.
    27. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    28. Schnabel, Isabel & Schüwer, Ulrich, 2017. "What Drives the Sovereign-Bank Nexus?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168259, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Stéphanie Pamies & Nicolas Carnot & Anda Pătărău, 2021. "Do Fundamentals Explain Differences between Euro Area Sovereign Interest Rates?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 141, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    30. Lung-Fei Lee, 2004. "Asymptotic Distributions of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1899-1925, November.
    31. Heather D Gibson & Stephen G Hall & Deborah GeFang & Pavlos Petroulas & George S Tavlas, 2021. "Cross-country spillovers of national financial markets and the effectiveness of ECB policies during the euro-area crisis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1454-1470.
    32. Yang, Kai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Identification and QML estimation of multivariate and simultaneous equations spatial autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 196-214.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heather D Gibson & Stephen G Hall & Deborah GeFang & Pavlos Petroulas & George S Tavlas, 2021. "Cross-country spillovers of national financial markets and the effectiveness of ECB policies during the euro-area crisis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1454-1470.
    2. Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Deborah Gefang, 2023. "A test to select between spatial weighting matrices," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & Deborah Gefang & Pavlos Petroulas & George S. Tavlas, 2020. "Did the absence of a central bank backstop in the sovereign bond markets exacerbate spillovers during the euro-area crisis?," Working Papers 281, Bank of Greece.
    4. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter H. Egger & Michaela Kesina, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of multivariate panel probits with higher‐order network interdependence and an application to firms' global market participation in Guangdong," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1356-1378, November.
    5. AMBA OYON, Claude Marius & Mbratana, Taoufiki, 2017. "Simultaneous equation models with spatially autocorrelated error components," MPRA Paper 82395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lina Lu, 2017. "Simultaneous Spatial Panel Data Models with Common Shocks," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Yang, Kai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Identification and QML estimation of multivariate and simultaneous equations spatial autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 196-214.
    8. Wang, Wei & Lee, Lung-Fei & Bao, Yan, 2018. "GMM estimation of the spatial autoregressive model in a system of interrelated networks," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 167-198.
    9. Fernando A. López & Román Mínguez & Jesús Mur, 2020. "ML versus IV estimates of spatial SUR models: evidence from the case of Airbnb in Madrid urban area," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 64(2), pages 313-347, April.
    10. Zhu, Xuening & Huang, Danyang & Pan, Rui & Wang, Hansheng, 2020. "Multivariate spatial autoregressive model for large scale social networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 591-606.
    11. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Yang, Kai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2021. "Estimation of dynamic panel spatial vector autoregression: Stability and spatial multivariate cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 337-367.
    13. Wang, Luya & Li, Kunpeng & Wang, Zhengwei, 2014. "Quasi maximum likelihood estimation for simultaneous spatial autoregressive models," MPRA Paper 59901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. AMBA OYON, Claude Marius & Mbratana, Taoufiki, 2018. "Simultaneous Generalized Method of Moments Estimator for Panel Data Models with Spatially Correlated Error Components," MPRA Paper 84746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. William C. Horrace & Hyunseok Jung & Shane Sanders, 2022. "Network Competition and Team Chemistry in the NBA," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 35-49, January.
    16. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    17. Marius C. O. Amba & Taoufiki Mbratana & Julie Gallo, 2023. "Spatial panel simultaneous equations models with error components," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1149-1196, September.
    18. Gibbons, Steve & Overman, Henry G. & Patacchini, Eleonora, 2015. "Spatial Methods," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 115-168, Elsevier.
    19. Rainone, Edoardo, 2020. "The network nature of over-the-counter interest rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    20. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter H. Egger & Michaela Kesina, 2018. "Generalized spatial autocorrelation in a panel-probit model with an application to exporting in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 193-211, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area crisis; doom loops; cross-country spillovers; spatial estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:63:y:2022:i:c:s157230892200078x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.