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The known unknowns and unknown unknowns of European Monetary Union

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  • Pisani-Ferry, Jean

Abstract

The early literature on Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe provided insights into the difficulties involved in forming a monetary union among diverse economies. Several of the problems that emerged in the euro crisis were correctly diagnosed beforehand. The fact that they were not addressed is not attributable to the shortcomings of research but to a complacent reading of the literature by the policy community. The possibility of balance-of-payments crises within monetary union and the degree of correlation between the default risks of banks and sovereigns were however underestimated or even ignored in the literature. An analytical reassessment of EMU helps define options for policy reform.

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  • Pisani-Ferry, Jean, 2013. "The known unknowns and unknown unknowns of European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 6-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:6-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.11.002
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    3. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2017. "Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 371-385.
    4. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2014. "Doom-loops: The Role of Rating Agencies in the Euro Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    5. Lothian, James R., 2014. "Monetary policy and the twin crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 197-210.
    6. Kohonen, Anssi, 2014. "Transmission of government default risk in the eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 71-85.
    7. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    8. Gibson, Heather D. & Palivos, Theodore & Tavlas, George S., 2014. "The Crisis in the Euro Area: An Analytic Overview," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 233-239.
    9. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2019. "Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 232-249.
    10. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret-Sallenave, 2016. "Intra-European Union Imbalances and Cyclical Position: Does Monetary Policy Matter?," Post-Print hal-01410832, HAL.
    11. Yuwen Dai, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Financial Sustainability in a Two-State Open Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-12, April.
    12. Mirdala, Rajmund & Ruščáková, Anna, 2015. "On Origins and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "How Germany benefits the most from its Eurozone membership," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1074-1088.
    14. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Tavlas, George S., 2022. "An investigation into feedback and spatial relationships between banks’ share prices and sovereign bond spreads during the euro crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Dobronravova, Elizaveta (Добронравова, Елизавета), 2017. "Modeling the Processes of Economic and Monetary Integration [Моделирование Процессов Экономической И Валютной Интеграции]," Working Papers 031710, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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    Euro; European Economic and Monetary Union;

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