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The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns of the EMU

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  • Jean Pisani-Ferry

Abstract

• The potential for financial disruption was vastly underestimated. Economists generally did not consider, or underestimated, the possibility of balance of payment crises such as those experienced by southern European countries, or the risk of a feedback loop between banks and sovereigns. • Remedying EMU’s systemic deficiencies is on the policy agenda. Banking union would go a long way towards addressing the fault lines. The urgent question for economists is if it is going to be enough and, if not, what else should complement the ‘bare-bones’ EMU of Maastricht. This Policy Contribution is based on a keynote address at the conference The European Sovereign Debt Crisis - Background and Perspectives, held at the Danish National Bank on 13-14 April 2012.

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  • Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns of the EMU," Policy Contributions 756, Bruegel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bre:polcon:756
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Nicolas Véron & Guntram B. Wolff, 2012. "What kind of European banking union?," Policy Contributions 731, Bruegel.
    2. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden Stops in the Euro Area," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
    3. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    4. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Guntram B. Wolff, 2012. "The fiscal implications of a banking union," Policy Briefs 748, Bruegel.
    5. Hofmann, Boris & Remsperger, Hermann, 2005. "Inflation differentials among the Euro area countries: Potential causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-419, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jeroen Hessel, 2014. "Current account imbalances in the Euro area: Competitiveness or financial cycle?," DNB Working Papers 443, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. repec:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:2:p:86-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mario Sarcinelli, 2013. "L'unione bancaria europea e la stabilizzazione dell'Eurozona," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 66(261), pages 7-42.
    4. Mario Sarcinelli, 2013. "The European Banking Union: Will It Be a True Union without Risk Sharing?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 66(265), pages 137-167.

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