External imbalances and financial fragility in the euro area
This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that the South in the euro zone has been fiscally irresponsible, and has failed to implement supply-side policies such as liberalizing labor markets and the market for services. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts raise some doubt about the validity of the thesis that the debt crisis in the Eurozone is driven primarily by fiscal fragility in the South. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. Fiscal fragility and external imbalances explain a significant share of the widening spreads since the onset of the global financial crisis. However, differences in labor productivity growth between North and South assume a much relevant role since the Greek crisis erupted in 2010.
|Date of creation:||May 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Piazzale Martelli, 8 6012 Ancona|
Phone: +39 071 220 7083
Fax: +39 071 220 7102
Web page: http://sites.google.com/site/mofirunivpm/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "The European Balance of Payments Crisis: An Introduction," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(SPECIALIS), pages 03-10, 02.
- Masson, Paul R., 1981. "Dynamic stability of portfolio balance models of the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 467-477, November.
- Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010.
"How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 107-134, February.
- Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2007. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Working Papers 323, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2008. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2007. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," CSEF Working Papers 181, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Government Risk Premiums in the Bond Market: EMU and Canada," CEPR Discussion Papers 6579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2008. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," Working Paper Series 879, European Central Bank.
- Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
- Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2012. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," POLIS Working Papers 168, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Ugo Panizza & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2012. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 65, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden Stops in the Euro Area," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
- Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden stops in the euro area," Policy Contributions 718, Bruegel.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo WollmershÃ¤user, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECBâ€™s Rescue Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 3500, CESifo Group Munich.
- Emiliano Brancaccio, 2008. "Deficit commerciale, crisi di bilancio e politica deflazionista," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2008(96), pages 109-128.
- Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
- Michele Fratianni, 2012. "The Future International Monetary System: Dominant Currencies or Supranational Money? An Introduction," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, February.
- Yakov Amihud & Haim Mendelson, 2006. "Stock and Bond Liquidity and its Effect on Prices and Financial Policies," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(1), pages 19-32, April.
- Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lane, Philip R. & Pels, Barbara, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philip R. Lane & Barbara Pels, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp397, IIIS.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2011. "Saving imbalances and the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(Sept).
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2010. "Rescuing Europe," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(SPECIALIS), pages 1-22, 08. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anc:wmofir:66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maurizio Mariotti)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.