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The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Changing Market Dynamics and the Impact of Credit Supply and Aggregate Demand Sensitivity

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  • Theoharry Grammatikos

  • Robert Vermeulen

    (LSF)

Abstract

This paper highlights the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity on 91 US industries stock performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We account explicitly for changes in the market model and investigate, next to stock returns, the changes in systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the financial crisis. The results show that leverage has a significantly positive effect on systematic risk changes during the financial crisis. After accounting for the change in systematic risk, the crisis induced idiosyncratic return is significantly related to industry leverage and the industry s sensitivity to aggregate demand. A subsequent analysis shows that both leverage and demand sensitivity have economically large effects on industry performance during the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Theoharry Grammatikos & Robert Vermeulen, 2012. "The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Changing Market Dynamics and the Impact of Credit Supply and Aggregate Demand Sensitivity," LSF Research Working Paper Series 12-8, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:crf:wpaper:12-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manganelli, Simone & Altunbas, Yener & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2011. "Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?," Working Paper Series 1394, European Central Bank.
    2. Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries from Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2010/083, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2017. "Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 371-385.
    2. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2014. "Doom-loops: The Role of Rating Agencies in the Euro Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    3. Faizal Hafiz & Jan Broekaert & Davide Torre & Akshya Swain, 2024. "A multi-criteria approach to evolve sparse neural architectures for stock market forecasting," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 336(1), pages 1219-1263, May.
    4. Heather D Gibson & Stephen G Hall & Deborah GeFang & Pavlos Petroulas & George S Tavlas, 2021. "Cross-country spillovers of national financial markets and the effectiveness of ECB policies during the euro-area crisis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1454-1470.
    5. Sami Ben Jabeur & Rabi Belhaj Hassine & Salma Mefteh‐Wali, 2021. "Firm financial performance during the financial crisis: A French case study," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2800-2812, April.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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