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Geopolitical tensions and sovereign credit risks

Author

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  • Demiralay, Sercan
  • Kaawach, Said
  • Kilincarslan, Erhan
  • Semeyutin, Artur

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of country-specific geopolitical risks (CS_GPR) on credit default swaps (CDS). Using a dataset from 39 countries globally from 2006 to 2022, we find that idiosyncratic geopolitical shocks heighten the sovereign risk of the home country, causing significant increases in CDS spreads. The impact of CS_GPR on CDS becomes more pronounced during the periods of higher geopolitical tension, perceived sovereign credits risks, market volatility, and poorer economic and market performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Demiralay, Sercan & Kaawach, Said & Kilincarslan, Erhan & Semeyutin, Artur, 2024. "Geopolitical tensions and sovereign credit risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:236:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524000922
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Emiel Sanders & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk, Cost of Equity, and Bank Lending: Evidence From the Ukrainian War," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1122, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Wang, Daoping & Li, Kangle & Shen, Xinyan, 2025. "Fear of war: Geopolitical risks and the potential impact on local government bonds, stock market and FDI in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
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    5. Frangiamore, Francesco & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2026. "Geopolitical risk and sovereign stress in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 127823, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lu, Zhou & Gozgor, Giray & Pal, Shreya & Panda, Himanshu Sekhar & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2026. "The divergent effects of geopolitical risk on market openness," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Dieckelmann, Daniel & Larkou, Chloe & McQuade, Peter & Pancaro, Cosimo & Rößler, Denise, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and euro area bank CDS spreads and stock prices: Evidence from a new index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
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    10. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2025. "On the relationship between geopolitical risks and euro area sovereign bond yields," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Xiong, Ding & Sun, Yao, 2025. "The rising cost of turmoil: geopolitical crises and supply chain risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Behn, Markus & Lang, Jan Hannes & Reghezza, Alessio, 2025. "120 years of insight: Geopolitical risk and bank solvency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
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    14. Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ling & Sun, Xiaoxuan & Lin, Ning, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and offshore corporate bond issuance in local currency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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