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Global | Assessing Structural Geopolitical Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Jiménez
  • David Sarasa Flores
  • Alfonso Ugarte

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel measure of Structural Geopolitical Risk (SGR), designed to capture the long-run conditions that shape the likelihood of geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and fragmentation. This paper introduces a novel measure of Structural Geopolitical Risk (SGR), designed to capture the long-run conditions that shape the likelihood of geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and fragmentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Jiménez & David Sarasa Flores & Alfonso Ugarte, 2026. "Global | Assessing Structural Geopolitical Risk," Working Papers 26/08, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2608
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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