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Violent conflict and cross-border lending

Author

Listed:
  • De Haas, Ralph
  • Popov, Alexander
  • Mamonov, Mikhail
  • Shala, Iliriana

Abstract

How do violent conflicts shape cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by 14,021 creditors to firms in 179 countries (1989–2020), we document a dual effect: foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks but significantly increase financing to military and dual-use sectors during conflicts. This reallocation is stronger among lenders less specialized in the conflict country, more specialized in military lending, and domiciled in politically non-aligned nations. Effects are geographically contained and temporally limited, dissipating post-conflict. Our findings reveal how global banks strategically redirect credit toward military sectors during armed conflicts, despite reducing overall country exposure. JEL Classification: D74, F34, F40, G15, G21

Suggested Citation

  • De Haas, Ralph & Popov, Alexander & Mamonov, Mikhail & Shala, Iliriana, 2025. "Violent conflict and cross-border lending," Working Paper Series 3073, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253073
    Note: 861282
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    Cited by:

    1. Emiel Sanders & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk, Cost of Equity, and Bank Lending: Evidence From the Ukrainian War," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1122, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Lorenz Emter & Laura Kuitunen & Arnaud Mehl & Peter McQuade & Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Goetz von Peter, 2026. "Global banking and geopolitics through time," BIS Working Papers 1338, Bank for International Settlements.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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