IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v254y2025ics0165176525002988.html

Geopolitical risk and euro area bank CDS spreads and stock prices: Evidence from a new index

Author

Listed:
  • Dieckelmann, Daniel
  • Larkou, Chloe
  • McQuade, Peter
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Rößler, Denise

Abstract

We construct a new bank-level indicator of geopolitical risk for euro area banks by combining the Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) country-level geopolitical risk indexes and ECB supervisory data on the asset exposures of individual banks across countries. Using this new index as the key independent variable, we then apply panel local projections to investigate the impact of geopolitical risk on banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads and stock prices. We find that a one standard deviation increase in the exposure-weighted bank-level geopolitical risk index is significantly associated with an increase in CDS spreads of 34 basis points and a decline in stock prices of around 6%. Furthermore, the responses of these variables are relatively short-lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieckelmann, Daniel & Larkou, Chloe & McQuade, Peter & Pancaro, Cosimo & Rößler, Denise, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and euro area bank CDS spreads and stock prices: Evidence from a new index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525002988
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525002988
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112461?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Jiaxin & He, Mengxi & Li, Shaofang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Behn, Markus & Lang, Jan Hannes & Reghezza, Alessio, 2025. "120 years of insight: Geopolitical risk and bank solvency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," POID Working Papers 031, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Lo, Gaye-Del & Marcelin, Isaac & Bassène, Théophile & Sène, Babacar, 2022. "The Russo-Ukrainian war and financial markets: the role of dependence on Russian commodities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Khraiche, Maroula & Boudreau, James W. & Chowdhury, Md Shahedur R., 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market development," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Afees A. Salisu & Lukman Lasisi & Jean Paul Tchankam, 2022. "Historical geopolitical risk and the behaviour of stock returns in advanced economies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(9), pages 889-906, June.
    8. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Lee, Chang-Min, 2015. "International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices: Wavelet approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 118-122.
    9. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock prices," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    11. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank dividend policy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 339-361, September.
    12. Demiralay, Sercan & Kaawach, Said & Kilincarslan, Erhan & Semeyutin, Artur, 2024. "Geopolitical tensions and sovereign credit risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Theodoros Bratis & Nikiforos T. Laopodis & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2023. "CDS and equity markets’ volatility linkages: lessons from the EMU crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1259-1281, April.
    15. Seungho Jung & Jongmin Lee & Seohyun Lee, 2021. "Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics," IMF Working Papers 2021/251, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Jung, Seungho & Lee, Jongmin & Lee, Seohyun, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns: Evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics," MPRA Paper 108006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Demir, Ender & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Ginn, William, 2023. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    21. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Affandi, Yoga, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1018-1029.
    22. Yuan, Mengyi & Zhang, Lin & Lian, Yonghui, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk of commercial banks: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 587-605.
    23. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    24. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emiel Sanders & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk, Cost of Equity, and Bank Lending: Evidence From the Ukrainian War," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1122, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Lorenz Emter & Laura Kuitunen & Arnaud Mehl & Peter McQuade & Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Goetz von Peter, 2026. "Global banking and geopolitics through time," BIS Working Papers 1338, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Migliavacca, Milena & Anwer, Zaheer & Fandella, Paola, 2026. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: The case of US weapon and non-weapon firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Snarska, Małgorzata & Frydrych, Sylwia & Łukowski, Michał & Czech, Maria & Perez, Katarzyna, 2025. "Semiconductor game of thrones: A comprehensive study of geopolitical and equity market uncertainty transmission," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Boufateh, Talel & Saadaoui, Zied & Jiao, Zhilun, 2025. "On the time-varying responses of Fintech stock returns to geopolitical, financial and market sentiment shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.
    4. Choi, Sangyup & Havel, Jiri, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Azimli, Asil & Kalmaz, Demet Beton, 2025. "The impact of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on stock markets’ high-moment risk," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    6. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Carney, Richard W. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Wang, He (Helen), 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the cost of capital in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Hong, Yun & Zhang, Rushan & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Time-varying causality impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Global evidence from developed and emerging countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Jingyu & Zheng, Yan, 2025. "Geopolitical risks and oil market fear: Country-specific spillover effects," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PB).
    10. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2025. "US sectoral stock market volatility and geopolitical risk categories," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Chen, Xiuwen & Yao, Yinhong & Wang, Lin & Huang, Shenwei, 2024. "How EPU, VIX, and GPR interact with the dynamic connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from wavelet analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Trinh, Hai Hong & Tran, Thao Phuong, 2024. "Global banking systems, financial stability, and uncertainty: How have countries coped with geopolitical risks?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    13. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2025. "On the relationship between geopolitical risks and euro area sovereign bond yields," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Cai, Yifei & Fu, Xiaowen & Zhang, Yahua, 2025. "Geopolitical risks and airlines stock return — Implications to the financial stability of European airlines," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 51-57.
    15. Khraiche, Maroula & Boudreau, James W. & Chowdhury, Md Shahedur R., 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market development," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Cao, Ngan Duong & Trinh, Vu Quang & Nguyen, Tam Duc, 2025. "Geopolitical uncertainty and firm tail risk: Evidence from energy-focused economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2025. "US sectors and geopolitical risk: The investor's perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Tam NguyenHuu & Deniz Karaman Orsal, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and financial stress in emerging economies," Working Papers 2022.09, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    19. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Demir, Ender & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Hedging Geopolitical Risks with Different Asset Classes: A Focus on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    20. Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525002988. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.