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Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective

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  • Zhang, Yaojie
  • He, Jiaxin
  • He, Mengxi
  • Li, Shaofang

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and stock market volatility from a global perspective. We use dynamic panel data including 32 countries and regions and the bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator. Empirical results show that GPR has a significant positive effect on stock market volatility, which is not affected by control variables. Moreover, we find that the effect of GPR on stock market volatility is more significant for emerging economies, crude oil exporters, and countries at peace. Our study provides new evidence for the relationship between GPR and stock market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yaojie & He, Jiaxin & He, Mengxi & Li, Shaofang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:53:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322007966
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103620
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    Cited by:

    1. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Wang, Jiqian & Ma, Feng & Wang, Tianyang & Wu, Lan, 2023. "International stock volatility predictability: New evidence from uncertainties," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Stock market volatility; Global perspective; Dynamic panel data; LSDV estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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