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US sectoral stock market volatility and geopolitical risk categories

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  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
  • Gabauer, David
  • Stenfors, Alexis

Abstract

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk categories on US sectoral stock market volatility using an autoregressive model with exogenous inputs from May 1995 to November 2024. We find that the impact of geopolitical risk categories is significant and highly sector-specific. Sectors react more strongly to terror threats than to terror acts. Further, escalations of war and military build-ups exhibit a stronger impact than war threats and beginnings of war. Finally, although global peace and nuclear threats have remained low in recent decades, they contribute to volatility in certain industries. The results are important for policymakers and investors alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2025. "US sectoral stock market volatility and geopolitical risk categories," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:76:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325001801
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.106916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cui, Rongyu & Li, Xiang, 2025. "Geopolitical tensions and multinational brands: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PE).
    2. Aslam, Adnan & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and bond market dynamics: Assessing the impact of threats and realized events," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Khan, Hera Asif & Chahal, Rishman Jot Kaur, 2025. "Asymmetric impact of social media sentiments and stock market uncertainty on Indian sectoral returns: A quantile-on-quantile approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Kim, Dong-Jun & Noh, Eunjung & Choi, Sun-Yong, 2025. "Quantile spillover effects and sector dynamics in U.S. stock markets: Normal vs. extreme market conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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