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COVID-19 effects on the S&P 500 index

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  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the US on the S&P 500 Index using daily data covering the period between 21st January, 2020 and 10th August, 2021. The investigation is achieved by using a structural vector autoregression model, where a measure of the global economic activity and the spread between 10-year treasury constant maturity and the federal funds rate are also included. The empirical results suggest that having $$1\% $$1% of an increase in cumulative daily COVID-19 cases in the US results in about $$0.01\% $$0.01% of a cumulative reduction in the S&P 500 Index after 1 day and about $$0.03\% $$0.03% of a reduction after 1 week. Historical decomposition of the S&P 500 Index further suggests that the negative effects of COVID-19 cases in the US on the S&P 500 Index have been mostly observed during March 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "COVID-19 effects on the S&P 500 index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 7-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:7-13
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1971607
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    Cited by:

    1. Li Chen & Guang Zhang, 2022. "COVID-19 Effects on Arbitrage Trading in the Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2025. "US sectoral stock market volatility and geopolitical risk categories," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Melike Bildirici & Işıl Şahin Onat & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2023. "Forecasting BDI Sea Freight Shipment Cost, VIX Investor Sentiment and MSCI Global Stock Market Indicator Indices: LSTAR-GARCH and LSTAR-APGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Zhang, Yanyi & De Smedt, Johannes, 2024. "Index tracking using shapley additive explanations and one-dimensional pointwise convolutional autoencoders," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    5. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock prices," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Marek Nagy & Katarina Valaskova & Erika Kovalova & Marcel Macura, 2024. "Drivers of S&P 500’s Profitability: Implications for Investment Strategy and Risk Management," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Chen, Song Xi & Guo, Bin & Qiu, Yumou, 2023. "Testing and signal identification for two-sample high-dimensional covariances via multi-level thresholding," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1337-1354.
    8. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Ghallabi, Fahmi & Yousaf, Imran & Ghorbel, Ahmed & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Time-varying risk spillovers between renewable energy and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Tang, Chia-Hsien & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Chen, Chan-Shin & Huang, Ya-Ling, 2025. "The COVID-19 pandemic and feedback trading dynamics: Unveiling global patterns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB).
    11. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi & Omed Rafiq Fatah & Awaz Mohamed Saleem, 2023. "Oil Exports, Political Issues, and Stock Market Nexus," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 362-373, January.
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Shaik, Muneer, 2022. "Islamic Stock indices and COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 282-293.
    13. Mehmet Ali Balcı & Larissa M. Batrancea & Ömer Akgüller & Lucian Gaban & Mircea-Iosif Rus & Horia Tulai, 2022. "Fractality of Borsa Istanbul during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-33, July.
    14. Zhou, Zhiping & Wang, Kai, 2025. "War discourse predicts stock market volatility: A century of evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Alam, Md Shabbir & Murshed, Muntasir & Manigandan, Palanisamy & Pachiyappan, Duraisamy & Abduvaxitovna, Shamansurova Zilola, 2023. "Forecasting oil, coal, and natural gas prices in the pre-and post-COVID scenarios: Contextual evidence from India using time series forecasting tools," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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