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Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Meier, André
  • Müller, Gernot

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this "sovereign risk channel." The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent self-fulfilling debt crises.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9723.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9723
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  1. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
  2. Stefano Neri, 2013. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on bank lending rates in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  4. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  5. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.
  6. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2010. "The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-74.
  7. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 21820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & in′t Veld, Jan, 2013. "Fiscal policy, banks and the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 387-403.
  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2013. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Self-fulfilling debt crises and monetary sovereignty," CEPR Discussion Papers 9358, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. Albertazzi, Ugo & Ropele, Tiziano & Sene, Gabriele & Signoretti, Federico Maria, 2014. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 387-402.
  13. Edda Zoli, 2013. "Italian Sovereign Spreads; Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions," IMF Working Papers 13/84, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  15. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
  16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2013. "Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Banking Sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2013-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  18. Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6713, Inter-American Development Bank.
  19. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  21. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
  22. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
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