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Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Meier, André
  • Müller, Gernot

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this "sovereign risk channel." The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent self-fulfilling debt crises.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9723.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9723
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  1. Ugo Panizza & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6713, Inter-American Development Bank.
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  15. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  18. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2013. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Self-fulfilling debt crises and monetary sovereignty," CEPR Discussion Papers 9358, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
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