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Could the Stability and Growth Pact Be Substituted by the Financial Markets?

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Abstract

In the discussions of the need for fiscal rules and their usefulness in a monetary union researchers have not agreed on whether the financial markets have a sufficiently disciplining effect on the governments, which would mean that the fiscal rules are not necessary. This paper investigates whether the European Union’s main fiscal rule, the Stability and Growth Pact, could be substituted by the financial markets, taking into account also the effects of the latest financial and economic crisis. Our findings suggest that there is certain interaction between the financial markets and the governments’ decisions on the fiscal policies and that this reaction has become stronger after the beginning of the crisis. However, the institutional setup and market conditions in the European Union are such that this interaction is biased and thus we conclude that the Union needs to have fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Terezie Lokajickova, 2010. "Could the Stability and Growth Pact Be Substituted by the Financial Markets?," Working Papers IES 2010/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2010_30
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    Keywords

    European Economic and Monetary Union; Stability and Growth Pact; Financial markets; Fiscal rules;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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