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Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S

  • Gerhard Reitschuler

    ()

  • Rupert Sendlhofer

    ()

We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S. only if the deficit surpasses approximately 5% of GDP.

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File URL: https://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2011-23.pdf
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2011-23.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2011-23
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  2. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
  3. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
  4. António Afonso, 2009. "Long-term Government Bond Yields and Economic Forecasts: Evidence for the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/38, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. Martin Zagler & Georg Dürnecker, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-418, 07.
  6. Zivney, Terry L & Marcus, Richard D, 1989. "The Day the United States Defaulted on Treasury Bills," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 24(3), pages 475-89, August.
  7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  8. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Francesco Caselli, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service; Some Estimates for OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 98/55, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
  12. Simone Salotti & Luigi Marattin, 2010. "The Euro-dividend: public debt and interest rates in the Monetary Union," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2010-04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  13. Douglas Laxton & Dirk V Muir & Michael Kumhof & Susanna Mursula & Charles Freedman, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits," IMF Working Papers 09/255, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Marco Bassetto & R. Andrew Butters, 2010. "What is the relationship between large deficits and inflation in industrialized countries?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 83-100.
  15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Williams, Geoffrey, 2002. "Long-term nominal interest rates and domestic fundamentals," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 119-130.
  16. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  17. Thomas Laubach, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 7-29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
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