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Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants

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  • António Afonso
  • Frederico Silva Leal

Abstract

We use a panel of 11 EMU countries in the period 2000-2014 to assess the importance of political and economic determinants as explanatory factors in sovereign bond yield spreads. According to the results, there is evidence that those spread determinants gained importance after the beginning of the financial crisis. Following the crisis, the debt ratio, fiscal balance, expenditure on pension funds, the level of liquidity, GDP growth rate, and structural reforms have become relevant determinants of sovereign spreads, while fiscal rules have reduced spreads. Key Words : Public Debt, Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Policy, Financial Crisis, EMU

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp092017
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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