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A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market

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  • Dewachter, Hans
  • Iania, Leonardo
  • Lyrio, Marco
  • Perea, Maite de Sola

Abstract

We estimate the ‘fundamental’ component of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads, i.e. the part of bond spreads that can be justified by country-specific economic factors, euro area economic fundamentals, and international influences. The yield spread decomposition is achieved using a multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a unique pricing kernel. More specifically, we use the canonical representation proposed by Joslin et al. (2011) and introduce next to standard spanned factors a set of unspanned macro factors, as in Joslin et al. (forthcoming). The model is applied to yield curve data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain over the period 2005–2013. Overall, our results show that economic fundamentals are the dominant drivers behind sovereign bond spreads. Nevertheless, shocks unrelated to the fundamental component of the spread have played an important role in the dynamics of bond spreads since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the summer of 2011.
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Suggested Citation

  • Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Perea, Maite de Sola, 2015. "A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2015009, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ajf:louvlr:2015009
    Note: In : Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 50, p. 308-325 (2015)
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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