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Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?

  • Eric Girardin

    (GREQAM-Université de la Méditerranée, France)

This paper uses regime-switching techniques to examine the similarities of GDP growth-cycle features of 10 East Asian countries. A third regime of rapid growth is relevant for most countries. In Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, there was no secular slowdown in growth since the rapid-growth regime re-emerged at some stage. Japan is special since it shares each of its features with different countries, while China shares almost all its features with most countries. Finally, the same countries that were correlated with Japan in the 1980s have been linked with China since the 1990s. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.262
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 143-156

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:10:y:2005:i:2:p:143-156
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  1. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
  2. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2003. "Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers wp0404, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  3. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  4. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1999. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations: Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 317-34, August.
  5. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Business Cycle Measurement in the Presence of Structural Change: International Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W33, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2000. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W32, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 6147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Friedman, Milton, 1993. "The "Plucking Model" of Business Fluctuations Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 171-77, April.
  11. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 2001. "A New Approach To The Analysis Of Business Cycle Transitions In A Model Of Output And Employment," Economics Series Working Papers 9959, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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