Has China's Economy Become More Stable and Inertial? Nonlinear Investigations Based on Structural Break and Duration Dependent Regime Switching Models
In this study we use both the structural break model and duration dependent transition model to study the characteristics of China's GDP growth from 1953 to 2009. The empirical results show that China's economic growth had become more stable since the economic reform in the end of the 1970s, and had transformed from a "low growth rate, high volatility" state to a "high growth rate, low volatility" state. In contrast to other transitional countries, China's structural break did not happen immediately, but rather it experienced a long transition period (1977-1992) which shows that China's economic development has a strong "growth inertia".
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2001. "Business cycle measurement in the presence of structural change: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-368.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997.
"Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?,"
9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Vadim Marmer, 2008.
"Testing the null hypothesis of no regime switching with an application to GDP growth rates,"
Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 101-122, August.
- Marmer, Vadim, 2009. "Testing the null hypothesis of no regime switching with an application to GDP growth rates," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2009-59, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 03 Nov 2009.
- Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
- Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g-7 economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 232-246, 08.
- J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993.
"Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth,"
887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994. "Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
- Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156.
- Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
- Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2008. "Bayesian analysis of a Markov switching temporal cointegration model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 257-274, March.
- Charles R. Nelson, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s? comments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2011:v:12:i:1:p:157-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qiang Gao)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.