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Testing the null hypothesis of no regime switching with an application to GDP growth rates

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  • Marmer, Vadim

Abstract

This paper presents tests for the null hypothesis of no regime switching in Hamilton's (1989) regime switching model. The test procedures exploit similarities between regime switching models, autoregressions with measurement errors, and finite mixture models. The proposed tests are computationally simple and, contrary to likelihood based tests, have a standard distribution under the null. When the methodology is applied to US GDP growth rates, no strong evidence of regime switching is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Marmer, Vadim, 2009. "Testing the null hypothesis of no regime switching with an application to GDP growth rates," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2009-59, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 03 Nov 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:ubc:pmicro:vadim_marmer-2009-59
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    File URL: http://microeconomics.ca/vadim_marmer/hmt15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bontemps, Christian & Meddahi, Nour, 2005. "Testing normality: a GMM approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 149-186, January.
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    11. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007-24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2018. "Testing the Number of Regimes in Markov Regime Switching Models," Papers 1801.06862, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    3. Angang Hu & Jie Lu & Zhengyan Xiao, 2011. "Has China's Economy Become More Stable and Inertial? Nonlinear Investigations Based on Structural Break and Duration Dependent Regime Switching Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 157-181, May.
    4. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    5. Jie Lu & Angang Hu & Yilong Yan, 2012. "Nonlinear investigations of China's agricultural transformation based on the structural break regime switching model," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 52-68, January.

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    Keywords

    regime switching; LM tests; GMM; matching methods; GDP growth rates;
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