A New Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycle Transitions in a Model of Output and Employment
This paper proposes a new framework for the impulse-response analysis of business cycle transitions. A cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model is found to be a congruent representation of post-war US employment and output data. In this model some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle which effects employment and output simultaneously. The long run dynamics are characterized by a cointegrating vector including employment, output and a trend as a proxy for technological progress and capital accumulation. Short-run and long-run dynamics are jointly estimated in a Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes representing recession, growth and high growth. For the analysis of the dynamics of output and employment, a new set of impulse-response exercises is considered.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ|
Web page: https://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
- Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011.
"Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment,"
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
- Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415.
- Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Samuel Bentolila & Giuseppe Bertola, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992.
"Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," Working Papers 90-4, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1978.
"Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations," Staff Report 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Garcia, Rene, 1998.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
- René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
- Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Pouliquen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.