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Unveiling the Dynamics of Wholesale Sales and Business Cycle Impacts in Japan: An Extended Moving Linear Model Approach

Author

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  • Koki Kyo

    (Department of Business Economics, School of Management, Tokyo University of Science, 1-11-2 Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0071, Japan)

  • Hideo Noda

    (Department of Business Economics, School of Management, Tokyo University of Science, 1-11-2 Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0071, Japan)

Abstract

Wholesale sales value is one of the key elements included in the coincident indicator series of the indexes of business conditions in Japan. The objectives of this study are twofold. The first is to comprehend features of dynamic structure of various components for 12 business types of the wholesale sales in Japan, focusing on the period from January 1980 to December 2022. The second is to elucidate effect of business cycles on the behavior of each business type of wholesale sales. Specifically, we utilize our moving linear model approach to decompose monthly time-series data of wholesale sales into a seasonal component, an unusually varying component containing outliers, a constrained component, and a remaining component. Additionally, we construct a distribution-free dynamic linear model and examine the time-varying relationship between the decomposed remaining component, which contains cyclical variation, in each business type of the wholesale sales and that in the coincident composite index. Our proposed approach reveals complex dynamics of various components of time series on wholesale sales. Furthermore, we find that different business types of the wholesale sales exhibit diverse responses to business cycles, which are influenced by macroeconomic conditions, government policies, or exogenous shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Koki Kyo & Hideo Noda, 2025. "Unveiling the Dynamics of Wholesale Sales and Business Cycle Impacts in Japan: An Extended Moving Linear Model Approach," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-43, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:7:y:2025:i:4:p:54-:d:1759451
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    2. Hideo Noda & Yuichi Osano, 2017. "Investment Policies to Extend the Life of Expressways in Japan," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-14, July.
    3. Koki Kyo, 2025. "Enhancing business cycle analysis by integrating anomaly detection and components decomposition of time series data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 34(1), pages 129-154, March.
    4. Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156.
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