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Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis

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  • Justin Doran
  • Bernard Fingleton

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="es"> La respuesta de las economías regionales y nacionales a los impulsos exógenos está bien establecida en la literatura relacionada tanto con la econometría espacial como la econometría convencional y su importancia es considerable dada la crisis económica post-2007, que se caracteriza por un grave período de inestabilidad global a resultas de perturbaciones económicas sin precedentes. Este artículo se centra en predicciones contrafactuales dinámicas y en funciones de impulso-respuesta derivadas de modelos econométricos relevantes. Estas proporcionan ideas acerca de si las respuestas a las perturbaciones económicas son transitorias o si tienen un efecto permanente. El análisis muestra que las perturbaciones de la producción han tenido efectos permanentes en la productividad de manera que las economías han tendido a no retornar a la ruta previa a la perturbación sino a ajustarse a las nuevas tasas de productividad. Esto sugiere que la recesión quedará grabada permanentemente en la memoria de algunas de las principales economías europeas como un efecto de histéresis.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2014. "Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 137-165, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:93:y:2014:i::p:s137-s165
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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