Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a Vector Autoregressive Process with Uncertain Deterministic Trend Term
When applying Johansen's procedure for determining the cointegrating rank to systems of variables with linear deterministic trends, there are two possible tests to choose from. One test allows for a trend in the cointegration relations and the other one restricts the trend to be orthogonal to the cointegration relations. The first test is known to have reduced power relative to the second one if there is in fact no trend in the cointegration relations, whereas the second one is based on a misspecified model if the linear trend is not orthogonal to the cointegration relations. Hence, the treatment of the linear trend term is crucial for the outcome of the rank determination procedure. We compare two alternative testing strategies which are applicable if there is uncertainty regarding the proper trend specification. In the first one a specific cointegrating rank is rejected if one of the two tests rejects and in the second one the trend term is decided upon by a pretest. The first strategy is shown to be preferable in applied work.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Badia Fiesolana, Via dei Roccettini, 9, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy|
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/ECO/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michel Peytrignet & Christof Stahel, 1998. "Stability of money demand in Switzerland: A comparison of the M2 and M3 cases," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 437-454.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999.
"Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns,"
77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06.
- Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Funke, Michael & Rahn, Jörg, 2004.
"Just how undervalued is the Chinese renminbi?,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
14/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1998.
"A review of systemscointegration tests,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,101, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000.
"Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1998. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with an intercept," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,51, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- G. William Schwert, 1988.
"Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
- Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
- Antonio Ribba, 2006. "The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 497-511, June.
- G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001.
"The demand for M3 in the euro area,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
- Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
- Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 1999.
"Local Power Of Likelihood Ratio Tests For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 50-78, February.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1997. "Local power of likelihood ratio tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Phillips, P C B, 1987.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2007. "General-to-specific or specific-to-general modelling? An opinion on current econometric terminology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 319-324, January.
- Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
- Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998.
" Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
- Toda, Hiro Y, 1994. "Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 66-79, February.
- Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
- Sabine Stephan, 2002.
"German Exports to the Euro Area,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
286, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
- Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1996.
"Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece,"
IMF Working Papers
96/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
- Neil R. Ericsson & Sunil Sharma, 1996. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," International Finance Discussion Papers 559, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2008/24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Banks)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.