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German Exports to the Euro Area

  • Sabine Stephan


The growth of the German economy intrinsically depends on the development of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. The paper estimates a structural equation for the export demand from the EMU member countries, which is suitable for both simulations and short-term forecasts. However, the equation systematically underestimates the export demand for data from 1999 onwards, indicating that German exports have greatly benefited from the introduction of the European Monetary Union--a special effect, that is not considered in the structural equation.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 871-882

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:4:p:871-882
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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  2. Lapp, Susanne & Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1995. "Determinants of exports in the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 707, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  5. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
  6. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  7. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  8. Martin Meurers, 2003. "Angebot und Nachfrage im Außenhandel : Theoretische Überlegungen und eine Kointegrationsanalyse für Deutschland," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 13, May.
  9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  10. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
  11. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
  12. Andreas Beyer & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Reconstructing Aggregate Euro-zone Data," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-624, November.
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