IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v223y2003i2p176-203.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Globalisierung und die Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels / Forecasting Germany’s Exports and Imports in the Era of Globalization

Author

Listed:
  • Strauß Hubert

    (OECD, Economics Department, Country Studies V, Benelux Desk, 2 rue André-Pascal, F-75775 Paris Cedex 16)

Abstract

Globalization has increased the differential between growth of world trade volumes and growth of world GDP during the last 25 years, thereby clearly enhancing German exports and imports, too. As a result from single-equation error-correction models for quarterly data on Germany’s foreign trade, imports react more strongly to an increase in the intensity of world trade (defined as the ratio of real world exports to real GDP) at the end of the nineties than at the beginning of the decade. The long-run elasticities with respect to economic activity (foreign industrial production in the case of exports, German domestic demand plus exports in the case of imports) turn out to be 1.3 and 1.6, respectively. The real effective exchange rate elasticities amount to -1 for exports and 0.3 for imports thus satisfying the Marshall-Lerner-condition. The model for exports and the one for imports are each derived from a 4 × 4-vector-error correction model in which one co-integration vector is found and weak exogeneity of the other three determinants does hold. With satisfying stability properties, small forecast errors and relatively low information requirements, the models may well be used in business-cycle forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Strauß Hubert, 2003. "Globalisierung und die Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels / Forecasting Germany’s Exports and Imports in the Era of Globalization," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(2), pages 176-203, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:223:y:2003:i:2:p:176-203
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2003-0205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2003-0205
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2003-0205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Lapp, Susanne & Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1995. "Determinants of exports in the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 707, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Feenstra, Robert C & Hanson, Gordon H, 1996. "Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 240-245, May.
    4. Jörn Kleinert, 2003. "Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing, Global Sourcing, or Increasing Importance of MNE Networks?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 464-482, August.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Gottschalk Jan, 1999. "On the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Europe / Zum Transmissionsmechanismus in Europa: Results from a Cointegration Analysis of a Money Demand System / Ergebnisse einer Kointegrationsanalyse eines," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(3-4), pages 357-374, June.
    8. David L. Hummels & Dana Rapoport & Kei-Mu Yi, 1998. "Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 79-99.
    9. Moller Herbert & Jarchow Hans-Joachim, 1990. "Demand and Supply Functions for West German Exports/Nachfrage- und Angebotsfunktionen für die westdeutschen Exporte," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 207(1), pages 529-538, January.
    10. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
    11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    12. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13828, December.
    13. Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 102-116, February.
    14. Seifert, Michael, 2000. "Zu den Auswirkungen von Wechselkursänderungen auf das langfristige Exportwachstum," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 6(12), pages 353-356.
    15. Gottschalk, Jan, 1999. "A cointegration analysis of a money demand system in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 902, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
    17. Sanjib Pohit, 1997. "A Survey on Trade Linkages in Indian Models," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 32(3), pages 1-21, October.
    18. Siebert, Horst & Klodt, Henning, 1998. "Towards global competition: catalysts and constraints," Kiel Working Papers 897, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
    20. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    21. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    22. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    23. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1997. "The Evolving External Orientation of Manufacturing Industries: Evidence from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 5919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claire Giordano & Francesco Zollino, 2016. "Shedding Light on Price- and Non-price-competitiveness Determinants of Foreign Trade in the Four Largest Euro-area Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 604-634, August.
    2. Römer, Christof, 2003. "Deutsch-amerikanische Wirtschaftsverflechtungen," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 30(3), pages 20-29.
    3. Christian Grimme & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "The Impact of the British Vote in Favour of a Brexit on the German Economy in 2016/17," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(13), pages 38-43, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hubert Strauß, 2001. "Euroland's Trade with Third Countries: An Estimation Based on NIPA Data," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 434-449.
    2. Strauß, Hubert, 2000. "Eingleichungsmodelle zur Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels," Kiel Working Papers 987, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Strauß, Hubert, 2002. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of Aggregate Exports: Empirical Evidence for the United States, Canada, and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1101, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Maritza Sotomayor, 2016. "Vertical Specialization of Production: Critical Review and Empirical Evidence for the Mexican Manufacturing Industries 1994-2014," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(2), pages 11-28, February.
    5. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    6. Sabine Stephan, 2006. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882, November.
    7. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    8. Strauß, Hubert, 2001. "Cointegration Analysis in an Inflationary Environment: What Can We Learn from Ukraine's Nominal Exports?," Kiel Working Papers 1084, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Michael Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2009. "South-North Integration, Outsourcing and Skills," wiiw Research Reports 353, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "Trade liberalization and industrial growth in Pakistan: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1421-1429.
    11. Meurers Martin, 2004. "Estimating Supply and Demand Functions in International Trade: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis for Germany / Die Schätzung von Angebots- und Nachfragefunktionen im Außenhandel: Eine multivariate," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(5), pages 530-556, October.
    12. Witada Anukoonwattaka, 2007. "Outsourcing and International Production of a Multinational: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence from Toyota, Thailand," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_045, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    15. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    16. Rosario Crinò, 2010. "Service Offshoring and White-Collar Employment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 595-632.
    17. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2019. "Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 779-811, September.
    18. Stirböck, Claudia, 2006. "How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,39, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Ogunleye, Eric Kehinde, 2008. "Natural resource abundance in Nigeria: From dependence to development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 168-174, September.
    20. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:223:y:2003:i:2:p:176-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.