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Testing for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process with uncertain deterministic trend term

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  • Matei Demetrescu
  • Helmut Lütkepohl
  • Pentti Saikkonen

Abstract

When applying Johansen's procedure for determining the cointegrating rank to systems of variables with linear deterministic trends, there are two possible tests to choose from. One test allows for a trend in the cointegration relations and the other one restricts the trend to being orthogonal to the cointegration relations. The first test is known to have reduced power relative to the second one if there is in fact no trend in the cointegration relations, whereas the second one is based on a misspecified model if the linear trend is not orthogonal to the cointegration relations. Hence, the treatment of the linear trend term is crucial for the outcome of the rank determination procedure. We compare three alternative procedures, which are applicable if there is uncertainty regarding the proper trend specification. In the first one a specific cointegrating rank is rejected if one of the two tests rejects, in the second one the trend term is decided upon by a pretest and in the third procedure only tests which allow for an unrestricted trend term are used. We provide theoretical asymptotic and small sample simulation results, which show that the first strategy is preferable in applied work. Copyright The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Matei Demetrescu & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2009. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process with uncertain deterministic trend term," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 414-435, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:12:y:2009:i:3:p:414-435
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    1. Izunna Anyikwa & Micheal Brookes & Pierre Le Roux, 2018. "African stock markets integration: an analysis of the relationship between major stock markets in Africa," Working Papers 1812, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Mar 2018.
    2. Jacques Jaussaud & Serge Rey, 2012. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Japanese Exports To China And The United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, February.
    3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2017. "Robust cointegration testing in the presence of weak trends, with an application to the human origin of global warming," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 514-545, May.
    4. repec:hal:journl:hal-00914830 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Serge REY & Jacques JAUSSAUD, 2009. "Long-Run Determinants of Japanese Import Flows from USA and China : A Sectoral Approach," Working Papers 8, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
    6. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2012. "Local-Explosive Approximations to Null Distributions of the Johansen Cointegration Test, with an Application to Cyclical Concordance in the Euro Area," ESSEC Working Papers WP1210, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    7. Itkonen, Juha V.A., 2012. "Problems estimating the carbon Kuznets curve," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 274-280.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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