Tests for cointegration rank and the initial condition
Many economic events involve initial observations that substantially deviate from long-run steady state. Initial conditions of this type have been found to impact diversely on the power of univariate unit root tests, whereas the impact on multivariate tests is largely unknown. This paper investigates the impact of the initial condition on tests for cointegration rank. We compare the local power of the widely used likelihood ratio (LR) test with the local power of a test based on the eigenvalues of the companion matrix. We find that the power of the LR test is increasing in the magnitude of the initial condition, whereas the power of the other test is decreasing. The behaviour of the tests is investigated in an application to price convergence.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 42 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/econometrics/journal/181/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 1999.
"Local Power Of Likelihood Ratio Tests For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 50-78, February.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1997. "Local power of likelihood ratio tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2009.
"Unit Root And Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is In The Infinite Past,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1682-1715, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos, 2008. "Unit Root and Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is in the Infinite Past," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1655, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Niklas Ahlgren & Jukka Nyblom, 2008. "Tests against stationary and explosive alternatives in vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 421-443, 05.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2006. "Minimizing the impact of the initial condition on testing for unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 285-310.
- H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen, 1997.
"Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Time Trend,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1997,79, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
- Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996.
"Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
- Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, 07.
- Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007.
"Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
- Busetti, Fabio & Forni, Lorenzo & Harvey, Andrew & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2006. "Inflation convergence and divergence within the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 0574, European Central Bank.
- Johansson, Edvard & Böckerman, Petri & Kiiskinen, Urpo & Heliövaara, Markku, 2007. "The Effect of Obesity on Wages and Employment: The Difference Between Having a High BMI and Being Fat," Working Papers 528, Hanken School of Economics.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2005. "Granger's representation theorem: A closed-form expression for I(1) processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(1), pages 23-38, 03.
- Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October.
- Ahlgren, N. & Antell, J., 2008.
"Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 52(10), pages 4754-4767, June.
- Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2006. "Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series," Working Papers 519, Hanken School of Economics.
- Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009.
"Unit Root Testing In Practice: Dealing With Uncertainty Over The Trend And Initial Condition,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 587-636, June.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition," Discussion Papers 07/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Luukkonen, Ritva, 1997. "Testing cointegration in infinite order vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 93-126, November.
- Böckerman, Petri & Johansson, Edvard & Jousilahti, Pekka & Uutela, Antti, 2007. "The Physical Strenuousness of Work is Slightly Associated with an Upward Trend in the Body Mass Index," Working Papers 523, Hanken School of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Minoas Koukouritakis, 2009.
"Testing the purchasing power parity: evidence from the new EU countries,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 39-44.
- Minoas Koukouritakis, 2007. "Testing the Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from the New EU Countries," Working Papers 0720, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001.
"A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
- Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001.
"Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
- Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2005. "On testing for unit roots and the initial observation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(1), pages 97-111, 03.
- Peter Pedroni, 2001.
"Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
- Tom Doan, . "PANELFM: RATS procedure to perform panel data group mean FMOLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00151, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "PANELDOLS: RATS procedure to perform panel data group mean DOLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00150, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ebru Guven Solakoglu, 2006. "Testing purchasing power parity hypothesis for transition economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 561-568.
- Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2005. "Real and monetary convergence between the European Union's core and recent member countries: A rolling cointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 249-270, January.
- Perron, Pierre & Campbell, John Y, 1993. "A Note on Johansen's Cointegration Procedure When Trends Are Present," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 777-89.
- Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
- Toda, Hiro Y, 1994. "Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 66-79, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:42:y:2012:i:3:p:667-691. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.