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Testing the Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from the New EU Countries

  • Minoas Koukouritakis

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

This paper examines the validity of the purchasing power parity between each of the twelve new EU countries vis-�-vis the Eurozone. Using the Johansen cointegration methodology for a period that begins from the mid-1990s and allowing for a structural break for the countries that joined the EU on May 2004, it is found that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the nominal exchange rate, the domestic prices and the foreign prices, for all the new EU countries. The evidence also suggests that the PPP vector enters the cointegration space for Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania and Slovenia, which means that only for these countries the long-run PPP vis-�-vis the Eurozone is verified. For the rest of the new EU countries the long-run PPP is violated, may due to the fact that the currencies of these countries have been pegged to the euro and cannot reflect the inflation differences vis-�-vis the Eurozone.

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File URL: http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/wpa/docs/Koukouritakis_PPP.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Crete, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0720.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 17 Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0720
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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
  2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  4. Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
  5. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries: strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability: A reply to Cuddington and Liang," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-764, October.
  6. Ebru Guven Solakoglu, 2006. "Testing purchasing power parity hypothesis for transition economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 561-568.
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