IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aes/amfeco/v12y2010i27p190-198.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing Purchasing Power Parity in Transition Countries: Evidence from Structural Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Acaravci

    (Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey)

  • Ilhan Ozturk

    (Cag University, Mersin, Turkey)

Abstract

This study examines the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in 8 transition countries for monthly data from 1992:1 to 2009:1. While results from both the ADF unit root and the KPSS unit root test indicate that PPP does not hold for Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia (FYR), Poland, Romania and Slovak Republic. In the presence of structural breaks, PPP holds only for Bulgaria and Romania it does not hold for the other 6 transition countries. Testing the stationarity of real exchange rate series by using four types of unit roots tests, the evidence suggests that real effective exchange rate is nonstationary and thus PPP doesn’t hold for all 6 transition countries in the long run. All results emphasized that there is weak evidence about the long-run PPP hypothesis in transition countries and the validity of PPP remains a controversial and unsettled issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Acaravci & Ilhan Ozturk, 2010. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity in Transition Countries: Evidence from Structural Breaks," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 190-198, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:12:y:2010:i:27:p:190-198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.amfiteatrueconomic.ro/temp/Article_946.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries: strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability: A reply to Cuddington and Liang," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-764, October.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-448, November.
    4. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    5. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    6. Alba, Joseph D. & Park, Donghyun, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity in Developing Countries: Multi-Period Evidence Under the Current Float," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2049-2060, December.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "The purchasing power parity revisited: New evidence for 16 OECD countries from panel unit root tests with structural breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 137-146, April.
    8. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. "Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
    9. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
    10. Dimitrios Sideris, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity in economies in transition: evidence from Central and East European countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 135-143.
    11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    12. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    14. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    15. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    16. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    17. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    18. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1999. "Purchasing Power Parity in High-Inflation Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Fractional and Harris-Inder Cointegration Tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 293-308, April.
    19. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2009. "Testing the purchasing power parity: evidence from the new EU countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 39-44.
    20. David Barlow, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 201-221, September.
    21. Kalyoncu, Huseyin & Kalyoncu, Kahraman, 2008. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Evidence from panel unit root," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 440-445, May.
    22. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    23. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2001. "Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections With Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
    24. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Christev, Atanas & Noorbakhsh, Abbas, 2000. "Long-run purchasing power parity, prices and exchange rates in transition: The case of six Central and East European countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 87-108.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Fatih Tra? & Esra Ball? & Çiler Sigeze, 2016. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity for Selected CIS Countries Using the Sieve Bootstrap," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 3506095, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mutascu, Mihai & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "Revisiting the Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Capital and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 97-120, September.
    3. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Marcel Kohler, 2016. "On the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from Energy Exporting Sub-Saharan Africa Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 71-82, July-Sept.
    4. Andreea-Daniela GANGONE & Mariana-Cristina GANESCU & Mihaela ASANDEI, 2018. "An Analysis Of The Effect Of Purchasing Power Parity On National Competitiveness And Human Development In 21 European Countries," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 3(1), pages 152-165.
    5. He, Huizhen & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Sequential panel selection method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 604-609.
    6. Nicolae Ghiba, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity Influence On Real Exchange Rate Behavior In Romania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3(4), pages 524-536, December.
    7. He, Huizhen & Ranjbar, Omid & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Old wine with new bottle," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-32.
    8. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2011:v:3:p:524-536 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Oguz OCAL, 2013. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Case of Romania: Evidence from Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 973-976.
    10. Arsalan FARID* & Alvina Sabah IDREES*, 2014. "PAKISTANS TRADE PATTERNS WITH CHINA AND UAE:Application of Purchasing Power Parity Theory," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 24(1), pages 75-86.
    11. Chang, Tsangyao & Tzeng, Han-Wen, 2011. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: Further evidence from nine transition countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1383-1391, May.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-458 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Daniel Balsalobre‐Lorente & Oana M. Driha & George Halkos & Shekhar Mishra, 2022. "Influence of growth and urbanization on CO2 emissions: The moderating effect of foreign direct investment on energy use in BRICS," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 227-240, February.
    14. Mücahit Aydın, 2019. "Investigation of the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis with Fourier Unit Root Tests: The Case of Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(0), pages 35-48, June.
    15. Tze-Haw Chan & Hooi Hooi Lean & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2014. "A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 18-37, January.
    16. Václav Žďárek, 2012. "An Empirical Investigation of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in European Transition Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(3), pages 257-276.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narayan Paresh K & Prasad Biman Chand, 2005. "The Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for Eleven Middle Eastern Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 44-58, August.
    2. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    3. Acaravici, Ali, 2010. "Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 140-154, July.
    4. Zorica Mladenović & Kosta Josifidis & Slađana Srdić, 2013. "The Purchasing Power Parity in Emerging Europe: Empirical Results Based on Two-Break Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 179-202, April.
    5. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
    6. Jennifer C. H. MIN & Hsien-Hung KUNG & Tsangyao CHANG, 2019. "Testing the Structural Break of Taiwan Inbound Tourism Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 117-130, June.
    7. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chan, Tze-Haw & Aggarwal, Raj, 2006. "The Changing Dynamics of the East Asian Real Exchange Rates after the Financial Crisis: Further Evidence on Mean Reversion," MPRA Paper 6090, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Nov 2007.
    8. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2006. "Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 153-167.
    9. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    10. Ikerne del Valle & Jordi Guillen & Kepa Astorkiza, 2017. "Substituting hake with sardines? Economic crisis and fish demand in Spain," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 600-610, September.
    11. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    12. Li-gang Liu & Laurent Pauwels & Andrew Tsang, 2007. "How Large is the Wealth Effect on Hong Kong¡¦s Consumption? Evidence from a Habit Formation Model of Consumption," Working Papers 0720, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    13. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 63-70.
    14. Mei-Se Chien, 2010. "Structural Breaks and the Convergence of Regional House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, January.
    15. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    16. John Dawson & Steven Millsaps & Mark Strazicich, 2004. "Trend Breaks and Seasonality in the Yugoslav Black Market for Dollars, 1974-1987," Working Papers 04-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, revised 2005.
    17. Oguz OCAL, 2013. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Case of Romania: Evidence from Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 973-976.
    18. Aviral Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity for India using threshold cointegration and nonlinear unit root test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 117-133, May.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    20. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2011. "Electricity consumption and real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach for 11 MENA countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(8), pages 2885-2892, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; unit root tests; structural breaks; transition countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:12:y:2010:i:27:p:190-198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valentin Dumitru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aseeero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.