Unit Root And Cointegrating Limit Theory When Initialization Is In The Infinite Past
It is well known that unit root limit distributions are sensitive to initial conditions in the distant past. If the distant past initialization is extended to the infinite past, the initial condition dominates the limit theory, producing a faster rate of convergence, a limiting Cauchy distribution for the least squares coefficient, and a limit normal distribution for the t -ratio. This amounts to the tail of the unit root process wagging the dog of the unit root limit theory. These simple results apply in the case of a univariate autoregression with no intercept. The limit theory for vector unit root regression and cointegrating regression is affected but is no longer dominated by infinite past initializations. The latter contribute to the limiting distribution of the least squares estimator and produce a singularity in the limit theory, but do not change the principal rate of convergence. Usual cointegrating regression theory and inference continue to hold in spite of the degeneracy in the limit theory and are therefore robust to initial conditions that extend to the infinite past.
Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 06 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_ECT
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2006. "Minimizing the impact of the initial condition on testing for unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 285-310.
- Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, 07.
- Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2008.
"Limit Theory For Explosively Cointegrated Systems,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 865-887, August.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007.
"Unit root testing in practice: dealing with uncertainty over the trend and initial condition,"
07/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Unit Root Testing In Practice: Dealing With Uncertainty Over The Trend And Initial Condition," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 587-636, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:25:y:2009:i:06:p:1682-1715_99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.