A re-assessment of German import demand
Empirical studies analysing German import demand functions traditionally report implausibly high income and relativly low price elasticities. Furthermore, estimation results strongly depend on the observation period. Minor variations in the estimation period typically lead to insignificant price terms often displaying the wrong sign. Based on an extensive econometric analysis, the author shows that these problems are caused by the use of highly aggregated activity variables (GDP or total demand). The problem is easily solved if GDP components, namely exports and investment, are used to model domestic economic activity. We find that imports, exports, investment, and a relative import price form highly stable cointegration relationships. The corresponding activity elasticity is clearly below 1 and the price elasticity is highly significant. Changes in the estimation period neither change the impact nor the significance of the determinants of imports.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hans-Böckler-Straße 39, 40476 Düsseldorf|
Phone: +49 211 7778 234
Fax: +49 211 7778 4234
Web page: http://www.imk-boeckler.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Ray Barrell & Dirk Willem te Velde, 2002. "European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 263-293, 08.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
- Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
- Khan, Mohsin S & Ross, Knud Z, 1975. "Cyclical and Secular Income Elasticities of the Demand for Imports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 357-61, August.
- Barrell, Ray & Dées, Stéphane, 2005. "World trade and global integration in production processes: a re-assessment of import demand equations," Working Paper Series 0503, European Central Bank.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S & Officer, Lawrence H, 1980. "Prices of Tradable and Nontradable Goods in the Demand for Total Imports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 190-99, May.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998.
"Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
- Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
- Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
- Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:08-2007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Nemitz)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.