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Italexit, is it another Brexit?

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  • Bernard Fingleton

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper estimates the possible job-shortfall across Italian and EU regions using a time–space dynamic panel data model with a spatial moving average random effects structure of the disturbances. The paper is a companion paper to an earlier prediction exercise regarding Brexit. The model includes spatial and temporal dependencies involving the endogenous variable, leading to estimates based on a new dynamic spatial generalized moments estimator proposed by Baltagi et al. (Reg Sci Urban Econ, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.04.013). The predictions use modified interregional trade estimates, assuming a reduction in trade flows between Italian and EU regions due to Italexit, to simulate the impact on employment across Italian regions and the wider EU. Comparisons are made between Italexit and Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Fingleton, 2020. "Italexit, is it another Brexit?," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 77-104, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:22:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10109-019-00307-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-019-00307-0
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    5. Badi H. Baltagi & Bernard Fingleton & Alain Pirotte, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 112-138, February.
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    1. Marino De Luca, 2022. "Methods for analysing citizens’ attitudes: a hypothetical Italian referendum about the membership of the European Union as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1681-1699, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italexit; Brexit; Interregional trade; Panel data; Spatial lag; Spatio-temporal lag; Dynamic; Spatial moving average; Prediction; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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