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Estimating the local employment impacts of immigration: A dynamic spatial panel model

Author

Listed:
  • Bernard Fingleton

    (University of Cambridge, UK)

  • Daniel Olner

    (University of Sheffield, UK)

  • Gwilym Pryce

    (University of Sheffield, UK)

Abstract

This paper highlights a number of important gaps in the UK evidence base on the employment impacts of immigration, namely: (1) the lack of research on the local impacts of immigration – existing studies only estimate the impact for the country as a whole; (2) the absence of long-term estimates – research has focused on relatively short time spans – there are no estimates of the impact over several decades, for example; (3) the tendency to ignore spatial dependence of employment which can bias the results and distort inference – there are no robust spatial econometric estimates we are aware of. We aim to address these shortcomings by creating a unique data set of linked Census geographies spanning five Censuses since 1971. These yield a large enough sample to estimate the local impacts of immigration using a novel spatial panel model which controls for endogenous selection effects arising from migrants being attracted to high-employment areas. We illustrate our approach with an application to London and find that no migrant group has a statistically significant long-term negative effect on employment. EU migrants, however, are found to have a significant positive impact, which may have important implications for the Brexit debate. Our approach opens up a new avenue of inquiry into subnational variations in the impacts of immigration on employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Fingleton & Daniel Olner & Gwilym Pryce, 2020. "Estimating the local employment impacts of immigration: A dynamic spatial panel model," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(13), pages 2646-2662, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:57:y:2020:i:13:p:2646-2662
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098019887916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard Fingleton, 2023. "Estimating dynamic spatial panel data models with endogenous regressors using synthetic instruments," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 121-152, January.

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