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Regional Science in a time of uncertainty

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  • Bernard Fingleton

Abstract

I have given this paper the title ‘Regional Science in a time of uncertainty’ because that is what it appears to be, very much a time of uncertainty. Uncertainty is always with us, but what I mean is the future is more uncertain than usual. There are multiple unanticipated and threatening shocks to our economic, social and environmental systems. For example, global climate change appears to be upon us right now, so what is the future especially for the world’s poorest people, living at the margins of existence? The after-effects of the 2007 shock to the global economy are still very much with us. In an era of very low demand, Central Banks are running out of policy options. We are moving into an era of experimental and unconventional fixes, such as negative interest rates. But these could have dangerous, unanticipated consequences. Also the upheavals in the Middle East are now being manifest as unforeseen mass migrations. Closer to home, the vote to exit the UK from the EU was based on a referendum dominated by claims and counterclaims about the effects of Brexit. Now the UK has voted to leave, the true consequences remain uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Fingleton, 2016. "Regional Science in a time of uncertainty," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 3, pages 61-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwreg:region_3_2_164
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    File URL: https://openjournals.wu.ac.at/ojs/index.php/region/article/view/164/version/124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "A Generalized Method of Moments Estimator for a Spatial Panel Model with an Endogenous Spatial Lag and Spatial Moving Average Errors," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 27-44.
    2. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1975. "Economic Growth and the Verdoorn Law-A Comment on Mr. Rowthorn's Article," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 891-896, December.
    4. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    5. Badi H. Baltagi & Bernard Fingleton & Alain Pirotte, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 112-138, February.
    6. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    7. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2015. "Shocking aspects of monetary union: the vulnerability of regions in Euroland," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 907-934.
    8. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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