IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hep/macppr/201104.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does an expanding low-pay sector decrease structural unemployment? Evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Garz

    ()

  • Artur Tarassow

    (University of Hamburg)

Abstract

Low-pay work has been increasing in prevalence in many industrial countries. Following standard wage/price-setting theory, this increase should reduce structural unemployment, because labour market flexibility increases and labour costs decrease. However, a Keynesian perspective challenges this claim, if the associated increase in investment demand does not sufficiently compensate for the negative effects on consumption. This research empirically investigates the theoretically uncertain impact of the relationship between the extensiveness of the low-pay sector and structural unemployment. Data from Germany, where the expansion of the low-pay sector has been declared the goal of the labour market policy, during the period from 1991 to 2008, indicate a positive impact of the growing low-wage sector on structural unemployment. Moreover, some indications suggest an opposite direction of causality, such that changes in the level of structural unemployment affect the share of low-wage earners. This effect is asymmetrical with respect to positive and negative changes, which seems to reflect downward wage rigidity, as caused by labour market institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Garz & Artur Tarassow, 2011. "Does an expanding low-pay sector decrease structural unemployment? Evidence from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201104, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_4_2011.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    2. Fitzenberger Bernd & Franz Wolfgang & Bode Oliver, 2008. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(5-6), pages 465-496, October.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    4. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Klär, 2011. "Capital accumulation, labour market institutions and unemployment in the medium run," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 437-457.
    7. Marcel Garz, 2010. "The NAIRU and the Extent of the Low-Pay Sector," IMK Working Paper 12-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Alan B. Krueger, 1993. "How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984–1989," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 33-60.
    9. Daron Acemoglu, 1999. "Changes in Unemployment and Wage Inequality: An Alternative Theory and Some Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1259-1278, December.
    10. Sephton, Peter S., 1995. "Response surface estimates of the KPSS stationarity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 255-261, March.
    11. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 486, OECD Publishing.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    13. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    14. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, January.
    15. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    16. Fitzenberger Bernd, 1999. "International Trade and the Skill Structure of Wages and Employment in West Germany / Außenhandel und die Qualifikationsstruktur von Löhnen und Beschäftigung in Westdeutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(1-2), pages 67-89, February.
    17. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2008. "Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 479-511, May.
    18. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    19. Richard B. Freeman, 1995. "Are Your Wages Set in Beijing?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 15-32, Summer.
    20. Christian Gianella & Isabell Koske & Elena Rusticelli & Olivier Chatal, 2008. "What Drives the NAIRU? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 649, OECD Publishing.
    21. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2006. "Hysteresis And The Nairu In The Euro Area," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 409-429, September.
    22. Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2007. "The Relationship Between Capital Stock, Unemployment And Wages In Nine Emu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 125-148, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; low-wage; asymmetric error correction; cointegration; VECM.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ulrich Fritsche). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dwuhhde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.