IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/isegwp/wp022017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • André Albuquerque

Abstract

We study the factors behind split ratings in sovereign credit ratings from different agencies, for the period 1980-2015. We employ random effects ordered and simple probit approaches to assess the explanatory power of different macroeconomic, government and financial variables. Our results show that structural balances and the existence of a default in the last ten years were the least significant variables whereas the level of net debt, budget balances, GDP per capita and the existence of a default in the last five years were found to be the most relevant variables explaining rating mismatches across agencies. For speculative-grade ratings, we also find that a default in the last two or five years decreases the rating difference between S&P and Fitch. For the positive rating difference between S&P and Moody’s for investment-grade ratings, an increase in external debt leads to a smaller rating gap between the two agencies

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & André Albuquerque, 2017. "Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp022017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://depeco.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wp/wp022017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2003. "Inside and outside bounds: threshold estimates of the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-218, May.
    3. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    4. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011. "Wage norms, capital accumulation, and unemployment: a post-Keynesian view," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 295-311.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Hypothesis and a Keynesian Approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    7. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    8. Peter Kriesler & Marc Lavoie, 2007. "The New Consensus on Monetary Policy and its Post-Keynesian Critique," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 387-404.
    9. J. E. King, 1999. "Introduction," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 251-255.
    10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    11. Alan Manning, 1992. "Productivity Growth, Wage Setting and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0063, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
    13. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    15. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-232, May.
    17. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    18. Giuseppe Fontana & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2007. "Are Long-Run Price Stability And Short-Run Output Stabilization All That Monetary Policy Can Aim For?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 269-298, May.
    19. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 2000. "Capital Stock, Unemployment and Wages in the UK and Germany," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(5), pages 487-503, November.
    20. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2008. "Is The Nairu Theory A Monetarist, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian Or A Marxist Theory?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 479-510, July.
    21. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1988. "Cooperation, Harassment, and Involuntary Unemployment: An Insider-Outsider Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 167-188, March.
    22. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 149-150, August.
    23. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    24. Ana Martínez-Cañete & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2011. "Capital stock and unemployment in Canada," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 113-136.
    25. Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2007. "The Relationship Between Capital Stock, Unemployment And Wages In Nine Emu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 125-148, April.
    26. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1992. "The reincarnation of Keynesian economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 559-565, April.
    27. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    28. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    29. Engelbert Stockhammer & Alexander Guschanski & Karsten Köhler, 2014. "Unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market institutions in the Great Recession," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 182-194, September.
    30. Rowthorn, Robert, 1999. "Unemployment, Wage Bargaining and Capital-Labour Substitution," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 413-425, July.
    31. Horst Siebert, 1997. "Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 37-54, Summer.
    32. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
    33. Rowthorn, Robert, 1995. "Capital Formation and Unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 26-39, Spring.
    34. Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-243, May.
    35. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    36. Howell David R. & Baker Dean & Glyn Andrew & Schmitt John, 2007. "Are Protective Labor Market Institutions at the Root of Unemployment? A Critical Review of the Evidence," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-73, May.
    37. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-816, May.
    38. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2013:v:39i:4p:485 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. J. E. King, 2013. "A Brief Introduction to Post Keynesian Macroeconomics," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 39(4), pages 485-508.
    40. Paul Davidson, 2011. "Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory, Second Edition," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14290, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign ratings; split ratings; panel data; random effects ordered probit;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp022017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vitor Escaria). General contact details of provider: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.