IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v47y2020i3d10.1007_s10663-019-09433-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

One Troika fits all? Job crash, pro-market structural reform and austerity-driven therapy in Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Diogo Martins

    (Universidade de Lisboa
    University of Coimbra)

  • Bruno Damásio

    (Universidade de Lisboa
    Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

Abstract

This article assesses the effectiveness of the labour market reforms implemented in Portugal as part of the Troika’s structural reform package. Using an ARDL-bounds test model to perform the econometric estimation, this investigation examines the long-run relationship between unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market variables for the 1985–2013 period. The econometric estimation suggests that capital accumulation has been the main driver of long-run unemployment, whilst labour market variables have played a minor explanatory role. These results suggest that Portuguese NAIRU is endogenous to capital accumulation and do not support the Troika’s emphasis on labor market reforms as a strategy to reduce long-term unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Diogo Martins & Bruno Damásio, 2020. "One Troika fits all? Job crash, pro-market structural reform and austerity-driven therapy in Portugal," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 495-521, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:47:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-019-09433-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-019-09433-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-019-09433-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-019-09433-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    2. Giuseppe Fontana & Alfonso Palacio‐Vera, 2007. "Are Long‐Run Price Stability And Short‐Run Output Stabilization All That Monetary Policy Can Aim For?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 269-298, May.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    5. Michelle L. Barnes & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2003. "Inside and outside bounds: threshold estimates of the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Marchionatti, Roberto & Sella, Lisa, 2015. "Is Neo-Walrasian Macroeconomics a Dead End?," CESMEP Working Papers 201502, University of Turin.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-218, May.
    9. Rowthorn, Robert, 1999. "Unemployment, Wage Bargaining and Capital-Labour Substitution," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 23(4), pages 413-425, July.
    10. Siebert, Horst, 1997. "Labor market rigidities and unemployment in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 787, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-232, May.
    12. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1992. "The reincarnation of Keynesian economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 559-565, April.
    13. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    14. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011. "Wage norms, capital accumulation, and unemployment: a post-Keynesian view," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 295-311.
    15. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    16. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Hypothesis and a Keynesian Approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    17. Horst Siebert, 1997. "Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 37-54, Summer.
    18. Jean‐Bernard Chatelain, 2010. "The Profit–Investment–Unemployment Nexus And Capacity Utilization In A Stock‐Flow Consistent Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 454-472, July.
    19. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    20. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    21. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2005. "Aggregate demand, conflict and capacity in the inflationary process," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(6), pages 959-974, November.
    22. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    23. Ricardo Barradas & Sérgio Lagoa & Emanuel Leão & Ricardo Paes Mamede, 2018. "Financialization in the European Periphery and the Sovereign Debt Crisis: The Portuguese Case," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 1056-1083, October.
    24. Rowthorn, Robert, 1995. "Capital Formation and Unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 26-39, Spring.
    25. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2008. "Is The Nairu Theory A Monetarist, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian Or A Marxist Theory?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 479-510, July.
    26. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
    27. Engelbert Stockhammer & Alexander Guschanski & Karsten Köhler, 2014. "Unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market institutions in the Great Recession," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 182-194, September.
    28. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    29. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    30. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    31. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    32. Howell David R. & Baker Dean & Glyn Andrew & Schmitt John, 2007. "Are Protective Labor Market Institutions at the Root of Unemployment? A Critical Review of the Evidence," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-73, May.
    33. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang‐Frisancho Mariscal, 2000. "Capital Stock, Unemployment and Wages in the UK and Germany," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(5), pages 487-503, November.
    34. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-816, May.
    35. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1988. "Cooperation, Harassment, and Involuntary Unemployment: An Insider-Outsider Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 167-188, March.
    36. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    37. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 2014. "Macroeconomics: Institutions, Instability, and the Financial System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199655793.
    38. Ana Martínez-Cañete & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2011. "Capital stock and unemployment in Canada," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 113-136.
    39. Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2007. "The Relationship Between Capital Stock, Unemployment And Wages In Nine Emu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 125-148, April.
    40. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diogo Martins, 2024. "The post-pandemic inflation debate: a critical review," Working Papers REM 2024/0308, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno Damásio & Diogo Martins, 2017. "Do Labour Market Reforms Pay Off? Unemployment and Capital Accumulation in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. António Afonso & André Albuquerque, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 46, pages 49-70, July.
    3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rob Calvert Jump, 2022. "An Estimation of Unemployment Hysteresis," Working Papers PKWP2221, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Antonio Rodriguez-Gil, 2018. "Hysteresis and labour market institutions. Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1985-2025, December.
    5. Engelbert Stockhammer & Alexander Guschanski & Karsten Köhler, 2014. "Unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market institutions in the Great Recession," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 182-194, September.
    6. Eckhard Hein & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2010. "Macroeconomic Policy Mix, Employment and Inflation in a Post-Keynesian Alternative to the New Consensus Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 317-354.
    7. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Klär, 2011. "Capital accumulation, labour market institutions and unemployment in the medium run," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(2), pages 437-457.
    9. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    10. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    11. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2008. "Is The Nairu Theory A Monetarist, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian Or A Marxist Theory?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 479-510, July.
    12. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    13. Nishi, Hiroshi & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2020. "Distribution shocks in a Kaleckian model with hysteresis and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 465-479.
    14. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 3-28.
    15. Sujit Kapadia, 2003. "The Capital Stock and Equilibrium Unemployment: A New Theoretical Perspective," Economics Series Working Papers 181, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    17. Albert van der Horst, 2003. "Structural estimates of equilibrium unemployment in six OECD economies," CPB Discussion Paper 19, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1105, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    19. Zwickl, Klara & Disslbacher, Franziska & Stagl, Sigrid, 2016. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 246-253.
    20. Albert van der Horst, 2003. "Structural estimates of equilibrium unemployment in six OECD economies," CPB Discussion Paper 19.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; Unemployment; Capital accumulation; Labour market institutions; ARDL; Bounds test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:47:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-019-09433-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.