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Neues von der NAIRU?

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  • Franz, Wolfgang

Abstract

Der Beitrag enthält eine Neuschätzung der inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) für Westdeutschland 1980 bis 1998. Nach einer Darstellung des konzeptionellen Rahmens der NAIRU einschließlich verschiedener Varianten, welche beispielsweise exogenen Schocks und dem Hysterese-Phänomen Rechnung tragen, erfolgt eine Diskussion verschiedener methodischer Probleme. Erstmalig werden für Westdeutschland dann eine zeitvariable NAIRU mit Hilfe des Kalman-Verfahrens sowie dazugehörige Konfidenzbänder unter Verwendung der residualbasierten Bootstrap-Methode geschätzt. Demnach liegt die westdeutsche NAIRU Ende des Jahres 1998 im Intervall zwischen 7.9 und 8.5 v.H. Zahlreiche methodische Vorbehalte sprechen indes dafür, diese und andere NAIRU Schätzungen mit Vorsicht zu interpretieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5324
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24388/1/dp0041.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Knoppik & Thomas Beissinger, 2003. "How Rigid are Nominal Wages? Evidence and Implications for Germany," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(4), pages 619-641, December.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33.
    3. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    4. Linzert, Tobias, 2005. "The Unemployment Inflation Trade-Off in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 1699, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Gottschalk, Jan, 2002. "Keynesian and monetarist views on the German unemployment problem: theory and evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Quaas, Georg & Klein, Mathias, 2010. "Der Beitrag alternativer NAIRU-Kurven zur Erklärung der Inflation [The Contribution of Alternative NAIRU-curves to the Explanation of Inflation]," MPRA Paper 26176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Klös, Hans-Peter, 2001. "Institutionelle Reformen auf den ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt: Vorbild für den Westen?," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 28(1), pages 14-31.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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    1. Die Inflation nicht beschleunigende Arbeitslosenquote in Wikipedia German

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