IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Hysteresis in West German Unemployment Reconsidered

Author Info

  • Michael Reutter
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The view that high unemployment in West Germany and other European countries is caused by a path dependence effect - or "hysteresis" effect - is quite popular among economists. However, because of an identification problem, much of the empirical evidence for this hypothesis is not fu lly convincing. This paper suggests a testing procedure that overcomes this problem. It is argued that in a cointegration framework it is reasonable to define hysteresis as the absence of weak exogeneity of the explanatory variables. Building on a cointeg ration model of the employment rate in West Germany, I find only weak evidence for hysteresis.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2000/wp-cesifo-2000-01/WP240.PDF
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 240.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_240
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
    Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
    Fax: +49 (89) 985369
    Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    Keywords: Cointegration; hysteresis; trade unions; unemployment;

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Lee, Hahn Shik, 1992. "Maximum likelihood inference on cointegration and seasonal cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 1-47.
    2. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
    4. Ehud Kalai, 1977. "Proportional Solutions to Bargaining Situations: Interpersonal Utility Comparisons," Discussion Papers 179, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    5. Alogoskoufis, George & Manning, Alan, 1988. "Wage setting and unemployment persistence in Europe, Japan and the USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 698-706, March.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in economic relationships: An overview," Discussion Papers, Series II 104, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    8. Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
    9. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 109-25.
    10. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    11. Giavazzi, Francesco & Wyplosz, Charles, 1985. "The Zero Root Problem: A Note on the Dynamic Determination of the Stationary Equilibrium in Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 353-57, April.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    13. Alan Manning, 1992. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0062, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 182-87, May.
    15. Hargreaves Heap, S P, 1980. "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 611-20, September.
    16. Profit, Stefan & Tschernig, Rolf, 1998. "Germany's labor market problems: What to do and what not to do? A survey among experts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,94, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    17. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. "Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774549.
    18. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1998. "Natural-Rate Theory and OECD Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 782-801, May.
    19. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 1990. "Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198772446.
    20. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
    21. Manning, Alan, 1995. "Developments in Labour Market Theory and Their Implications for Macroeconomic Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 42(3), pages 250-66, August.
    22. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    23. Bruno Amable & Jérôme Henry & Frédéric Lordon & Richard Topol, 1993. "Unit Root in the Wage-Price Spiral Is Not Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1/2), pages 123-135, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    as in new window


    Cited by:

    1. Bayer, Christian & Juessen, Falko, 2006. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," Technical Reports 2006,39, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    2. Wolfgang Franz, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Access and download statistics

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.