IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data

  • George Hondroyiannis

    ()

This paper examines the determinants of fertility, using panel data for twenty-seven European countries. We employ panel co-integration to estimate fertility as function of demographic and economic variables. We show that low fertility in most industrialized countries in Europe is due to low infant mortality rates, high female employment, low nuptiality rate and high opportunity cost of having children. Using two measures of economic uncertainty, which are associated with labor market decisions - a production (an output) volatility measure and the unemployment rate - we examine to what extent economic insecurities affect fertility decisions. The empirical results show that both measures of economic uncertainty have a significant negative impact on fertility implying that labor market insecurities might be a significant factor affecting fertility decisions.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10834-009-9178-3
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Family and Economic Issues.

Volume (Year): 31 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 33-50

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:kap:jfamec:v:31:y:2010:i:1:p:33-50
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=104904

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
  2. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
  3. Mocan, Naci H, 1990. "Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the United States: A Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 125-46, August.
  4. Laura Pagani & Anna Marenzi, 2008. "The Labor Market Participation of Sandwich Generation Italian Women," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 427-444, September.
  5. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Robert Weagley & Min-Lee Chan & Jiahui Yan, 2007. "Married Couples’ Time Allocation Decisions and Marital Stability," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 507-525, September.
  7. Gary S. Becker, . "Family Economics and Macro Behavior," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 87-16, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  8. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  9. Whittington, Leslie A & Alm, James & Peters, H Elizabeth, 1990. "Fertility and the Personal Exemption: Implicit Pronatalist Policy in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 545-56, June.
  10. Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility and the Economy," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 92-3, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  11. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
  12. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  13. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  14. Stephan Klasen & Andrey Launov, 2006. "Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 25-54, February.
  15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  16. Moffitt, Robert, 1984. "Profiles of Fertility, Labour Supply and Wages of Married Women: A Complete Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 263-78, April.
  17. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2005. "Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 31-63.
  18. Ugo Colombino, 2000. "The Cost of Children When Children are a Choice," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 14(1), pages 79-95, 03.
  19. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Jr-Tsung Huang, 2007. "Labor force participation and juvenile delinquency in Taiwan: a time series analysis," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 137-150, March.
  21. Jr-Tsung Huang & An-Pang Kao & Wen-Chuan Hung, 2006. "The Influence of College Tuition and Fees on Fertility Rate in Taiwan," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 626-642, December.
  22. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1986. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  24. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  25. Huan Nguyen-Dinh, 1997. "A socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of fertility: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 251-271.
  26. Cain, Glen G & Dooley, Martin D, 1976. "Estimation of a Model of Labor Supply, Fertility, and Wages of Married Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages S179-99, August.
  27. Roy E. Bailey & Marcus J. Chambers, 1998. "The impact of real wage and mortality fluctuations on fertility and nuptiality in precensus England," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-434.
  28. Weiren Wang & Felix Famoye, 1997. "Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 273-283.
  29. Tansel Yilmazer, 2008. "Saving for Children’s College Education: An Empirical Analysis of the Trade-off Between the Quality and Quantity of Children," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 307-324, June.
  30. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions," IMF Working Papers 99/128, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  32. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, .
  33. Edward L. Glaeser & Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1999. "Population and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 145-149, May.
  34. Geoffrey Carliner & Christopher Robinson & Nigel Tomes, 1980. "Female Labour Supply and Fertility in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 46-64, February.
  35. Lyn Craig, 2007. "How Employed Mothers in Australia Find Time for Both Market Work and Childcare," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 69-87, March.
  36. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-59, October.
  37. Sah, R.K., 1989. "The Effects Of Mortality Changes On Fertility Choice And Individual Welfare: Some Theoretical Predictions," Papers 599, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  38. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  39. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  40. Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K & Scotese, Carol A, 1994. "Fertility Choice and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 255-66, May.
  41. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
  42. Adriaan S. Kalwij, 2000. "The effects of female employment status on the presence and number of children," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 221-239.
  43. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1999. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 2, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  44. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  45. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  46. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-46, July-Aug..
  48. French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-19, January.
  49. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  50. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
  51. Jason Murasko, 2008. "Married Women’s Labor Supply and Spousal Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: Results from Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 391-406, September.
  52. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  53. José Molina & Víctor Montuenga, 2009. "The Motherhood Wage Penalty in Spain," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 237-251, September.
  54. Chris Herbst & Burt Barnow, 2008. "Close to Home: A Simultaneous Equations Model of the Relationship Between Child Care Accessibility and Female Labor Force Participation," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 128-151, March.
  55. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  56. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  57. Guest, Ross S & McDonald, Ian M, 2001. "Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 117-34, June.
  58. Anna Cristina D’Addio & Marco Mira d’Ercole, 2005. "Policies, Institutions and Fertility Rates: A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 7-45.
  59. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Fleisher, Belton M & Rhodes, George, 1976. "Unemployment and the Labor Force Participation of Married Men and Women: A Simultaneous Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(4), pages 398-406, November.
  61. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  62. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  63. Pommeret, Aude & Smith, William T., 2005. "Fertility, volatility, and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 347-353, June.
  64. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2001. "Saving Behaviour in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(0), pages 22-41, Supplemen.
  65. Jacques Poot & Jacques J. Siegers, 2001. "The macroeconomics of fertility in small open economies: A test of the Becker-Barro model for The Netherlands and New Zealand," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 73-100.
  66. Maria Melkersson & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2000. "Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 189-203.
  67. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2002. "Demographic Transition In Europe," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(3), pages 1-8.
  68. Sheila Mammen & Daniel Lass & Sharon Seiling, 2009. "Labor Force Supply Decisions of Rural Low-Income Mothers," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 67-79, March.
  69. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2002. "Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 221-242.
  70. Maria Stanfors, 2006. "Labor Force Transitions after Childbirth Among Five Birth Cohorts in Sweden," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 287-309, June.
  71. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
  72. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
  73. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2004. "Demographic Changes and Economic Activityin Greece," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 49-71, 03.
  74. Winegarden, C R & Wheeler, Mark, 1992. "The Role of Economic Growth in the Fertility Transition in Western Europe: Econometric Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 421-35, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jfamec:v:31:y:2010:i:1:p:33-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.