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Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Author

Listed:
  • George Hondroyiannis

    () (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, El. Venizelou 21,102 50 Athens, Greece, and Harokopio University)

  • Evangelia Papapetrou

    () (University of Athens, El. Venizelou 21,102 50 Athens, Greece and Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960-96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process.

Suggested Citation

  • George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2002. "Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 221-242.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:15:y:2002:i:2:p:221-242
    Note: Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotis PEGKAS & Constantinos TSAMADIAS, 2015. "Does Formal Education At All Levels Cause Economic Growth? Evidence From Greece," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 15, pages 9-32, June.
    2. Frini, Olfa & Muller, Christophe, 2012. "Demographic transition, education and economic growth in Tunisia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 351-371.
    3. Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Faustine Perrin, 2016. "Economic and Demographic Interactions in Post- World War France: A Gendered Approach," Working Papers of BETA 2016-42, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Daniel Mejía & María Teresa Ramírez & Jorge Tamayo, 2008. "The Demographic Transition in Colombia: Theory and Evidence," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005128, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Čobanović, Katarina & Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija & Mutavdžić, Beba, 2007. "Relation of Socio-Economic and Demographic Factors in Rural Development of Serbia," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162339, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    7. Francisco Climent Diranzo & Robert Meneu Gaya, "undated". "Relaciones de equilibrio entre demografÌa y crecimiento econÛmico en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 163, FEDEA.
    8. Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2011. "Demographic transition and economic growth in Romania," THE YEARBOOK OF THE “GH. ZANE” INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES, Gheorghe Zane Institute for Economic and Social Research ( from THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY, JASSY BRANCH), vol. 20(2), pages 103-112.
    9. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Peng, Xiujian, 2007. "Japan's fertility transition: Empirical evidence from the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 263-278, March.
    11. Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Faustine Perrin, 2016. "Economic and Demographic Interactions in Post World War France: A Gendered Approach," Working Papers 10-16, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility · infant mortality · VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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