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Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long‐run and short‐run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom‐position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:20:y:2006:i:4:p:393-407
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8381.2006.00241.x
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    5. Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2018. "Determinants Of Female Fertility In Asean-5: Empirical Evidence From Bounds Cointegration Test," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 593-618, June.
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    8. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    9. Awad Atif & Yussof Ishak, 2017. "Factors Affecting Fertility – New Evidence from Malaysia," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 36(36), pages 7-20, June.

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