IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Fertility, economic growth, and human development causal determinants of the developed lifestyle

  • Hafner, Kurt A.
  • Mayer-Foulkes, David

The paper focuses on the long-term determinants of economic development and demographic transition and identifies the causal structure governing the triad of high income, high human development and low fertility rates defined as the “developed lifestyle”. We construct a balanced panel for 72 countries between 1980 and 2007 and use panel unit-root and cointegration tests. In estimating the long-run relationship between cointegrated variables, we use the dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation techniques. Empirical results show a causal long-run relationship between high income, high human development and low fertility. The evolution of the developed lifestyle differs significantly, however. In advanced economies, the demographic transition is essentially complete and therefore only changes in human development and income matter. In developing countries, fertility is negatively related with human development, but positively with income and – consistently with Galor and Mountford (2006, 2008) – trade. Moreover, we find no significant impact from human development on income – either for advanced economies or for developing countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070413000839
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2013)
Issue (Month): PA ()
Pages: 107-120

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:38:y:2013:i:pa:p:107-120
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
  2. Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P. Dorian, 1995. "Health capital and cross-country variation in income per capita in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 99-106, April.
  3. Robert W. Fogel & Larry T. Wimmer, 1992. "Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease, and Death," NBER Historical Working Papers 0038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mayer, David, 2001. "The Long-Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1025-1033, June.
  5. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effects of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_021, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  6. Robert W. Fogel, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 4638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Felipa de Mello-Sampayo & Sofia de Sousa-Vale, 2012. "Tourism and Growth in European Countries: An Application of Likelihood-Based Panel Cointegration," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/17, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  8. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "Female labor force participation and total fertility rates in the OECD: New evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality testing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 48-64, January.
  9. Baltagi B-H & Bresson G. & Pirotte A., 2005. "Panel Unit Root Tests and Spatial Dependence," Working Papers ERMES 0503, ERMES, University Paris 2.
  10. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4373.
  11. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  12. Francesco Caselli & Gerardo Esquivel & Fernando Lefort, 1997. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 03, Central Bank of Chile.
  13. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Arora, Suchit, 2001. "Health, Human Productivity, And Long-Term Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(03), pages 699-749, September.
  15. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 299-303, May.
  16. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Herzer, Dierk, 2009. "Cross-country heterogeneity and the trade-income relationship," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 13, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  18. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1996. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Papers 545, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  19. Dollar, David & Wolff, Edward N, 1988. "Convergence of Industry Labor Productivity among Advanced Economies, 1963-1982," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 549-58, November.
  20. James Heckman & Pedro Carneiro, 2003. "Human Capital Policy," NBER Working Papers 9495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Galor, Oded, 2012. "The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 6334, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  22. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
  23. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
  24. Tolga Omay & Mubariz Hasanov & Nuri Uçar, 2012. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nonlinear Panel Cointegration and Causality Tests," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20130, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  25. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  26. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  27. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2000. "The Economic Burden of Malaria," CID Working Papers 52, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  28. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Abdullahi D. Ahmed & Abu N.M. Wahid, 2011. "Financial structure and economic growth link in African countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 331-357, July.
  30. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
  31. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  32. Tobias Heinrich, 2012. "Education, growth and technology diffusion," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 866-870.
  33. James P. Neelankavil & Lonnie K. Stevans & Francisco L. Roman, 2012. "Correlates of economic growth in developing countries: a panel cointegration approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 83-96, January.
  34. Benjamin Cheng, 1999. "Cointegration and causality between fertility and female labor participation in Taiwan: A multivariate approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(4), pages 422-434, December.
  35. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  36. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  37. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1993. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 512-541, September.
  38. RobertJ. Willis, 1974. "Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 25-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. David Mayer, 2001. "The long-term impact of health on economic growth in Mexico, 1950-1995," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 123-126.
  40. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  43. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  44. Peter Howitt, 2000. "Endogenous Growth and Cross-Country Income Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 829-846, September.
  45. Oded Galor, 2005. "Unified Growth Theory," Development and Comp Systems 0504001, EconWPA.
  46. Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P Dorian, 1997. "Education and Health in an Effective-Labour Empirical Growth Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(223), pages 314-28, December.
  47. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  48. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
  49. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  50. Richard A. Easterlin & Victor R. Fuchs & Simon Kuznets, 1980. "American Population since 1940," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 275-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Zachary Gidwitz & Martin Philipp Heger & José Pineda & Francisco Rodríguez, 2010. "Understanding Performance in Human Development: A Cross-National Study," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-42, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
  52. Schultz, T. Paul, 1997. "Assessing the productive benefits of nutrition and health: An integrated human capital approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 141-158, March.
  53. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005. "R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-77, February.
  54. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
  55. Robert McNown, 2003. "A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 344-358, October.
  56. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 1998. " Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 111-30, June.
  57. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  58. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Panel Unit Root Tests With Cross-Section Dependence: A Further Investigation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(04), pages 1088-1114, August.
  59. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966-2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:38:y:2013:i:pa:p:107-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.