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A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

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  • Robert McNown

    () (Department of Economics and Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado)

Abstract

Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time-series data on age-specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long-run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age-groups and several alternative model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McNown, 2003. "A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 344-358, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:70:2:y:2003:p:344-358
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hafner, Kurt A. & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2013. "Fertility, economic growth, and human development causal determinants of the developed lifestyle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 107-120.
    2. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    3. Deniz D. Karaman Ă–rsal & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 109-145, January.
    6. Tadesse, Fanaye & Headey, Derek D., 2012. "Urbanization and fertility rates in Ethiopia:," ESSP working papers 35, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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