IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jsecdv/v27y2025i2d10.1007_s40847-024-00345-5.html

Impact of fertility decline, gender, and social development on economic growth in India

Author

Listed:
  • Biswajit Maitra

    (University of Gour Banga)

  • Dhritiman Ganguli

    (University of Gour Banga)

Abstract

The fertility rate in India has declined dramatically and reached the replacement level in recent years. The country also ensures significant progress in social development. To our knowledge, research accounting for the drivers of economic growth in India has not emphasized the role of fertility, gender, and social factors. Such an apathetic perspective of research can be regarded as an important diminution, given considerable evidence that the economic growth of many countries is closely associated with such factors. Against this backdrop, this paper explores whether the fertility decline and social development indicators like life expectancy at birth, educational attainment, gender development, and population growth have contributed to the income surge in India. Econometric analysis for 1971–2021 and separately for 1990–2021 identifies that income is associated with fertility rate, gender development, and social development indicators. It corroborates that the fertility decline is instrumental to income surge in the long run, while in the short run, it has a detrimental impact. The life expectancy helps stimulate income for 1990–2021. Educational attainment discloses positive impacts. Besides, a positive impact of gender development is found, while population growth retards income. The findings are meaningful and have implications for achieving social development goals and long-term growth in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Biswajit Maitra & Dhritiman Ganguli, 2025. "Impact of fertility decline, gender, and social development on economic growth in India," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 27(2), pages 450-471, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jsecdv:v:27:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s40847-024-00345-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s40847-024-00345-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40847-024-00345-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40847-024-00345-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 110-117, February.
    2. Biswajit Maitra & Moutushi Chakraborty, 2023. "Foreign Trade, Human Capital and Economic Growth in India under the Liberalised Trade Regime," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 5(1), pages 29-50, April.
    3. Srinivas GOLI & K. S. JAMES & Devender SINGH & Venkatesh SRINIVASAN & Rakesh MISHRA, 2023. "Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 29-61, March.
    4. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, September.
    5. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    6. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    7. Jakob B. Madsen & Md. Rabiul Islam & Xueli Tang, 2020. "Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 431-454, December.
    8. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    9. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    11. Cruz, Marcio & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2018. "On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 95-106.
    12. Hafner, Kurt A. & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2013. "Fertility, economic growth, and human development causal determinants of the developed lifestyle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 107-120.
    13. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    14. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2015. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 70, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    15. Biswajit Maitra & Moutushi Chakraborty, 2021. "International trade, human capital and economic growth in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-426, September.
    16. Rashmi Umesh Arora, 2012. "Gender Inequality, Economic Development, and Globalization: A State Level Analysis of India," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(1), pages 147-164, January-J.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    18. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    20. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    21. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Inequality and the Process of Development," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(4), pages 1001-1026.
    22. Shyam Ranganathan & Ranjula Bali Swain & David JT Sumpter, 2015. "The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(palcomms2), pages 15033-15033, November.
    23. Frank‐Borge Wietzke, 2020. "Poverty, Inequality, and Fertility: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Global Poverty Reduction," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 65-99, March.
    24. John B. Casterline & John Bongaarts & Mahesh Karra & David Canning & Joshua Wilde, 2017. "The Effect of Fertility Decline on Economic Growth in Africa: A Macrosimulation Model," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43, pages 237-263, May.
    25. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakob Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Testing unified growth theory: Technological progress and the child quantity‐quality tradeoff," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 235-275, January.
    2. Jakob B. Madsen & Md. Rabiul Islam & Xueli Tang, 2020. "Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 431-454, December.
    3. Kaixing Huang, 2024. "Fertility and long‐term economic growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1152-1171, July.
    4. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. David E Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "The contribution of female health to economic development [The costs of missing the Millennium Development Goal on gender equity]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1650-1677.
    6. Carolyn Chisadza & Manoel Bittencourt, 2015. "Education and Fertility: Panel Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 201526, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2021. "A Contribution To The Theory Of Fertility And Economic Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 753-775, April.
    8. Galor, Oded, 2024. "Unified Growth Theory: Engines of Growth and Inequality in the Wealth of Nations," IZA Discussion Papers 17491, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.
    10. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    11. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Thomas Gries & Rainer Grundmann, 2014. "Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1165-1186, October.
    13. Brian Snowdon, 2008. "Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(2), pages 97-151, April.
    14. Oded Galor, 2025. "Unified Growth Theory: Roots of Growth and Inequality in the Wealth of Nations," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 17(1), pages 197-216, August.
    15. Jun, Bogang, 2013. "The Trade-off between Fertility and Education: Evidence from the Korean Development Path," MPRA Paper 43971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2020. "The scientific revolution and its role in the transition to sustained economic growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 06-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    17. Madsen, Jakob B., 2025. "The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    18. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    19. Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Lars Lønstrup, 2014. "The Fertility Transition in the US: Schooling or Income?," Economics Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Hanzhi Hu, 2023. "The Consequences of Fertility Decline on Educational Attainment in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jsecdv:v:27:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s40847-024-00345-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.