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Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern

Author

Listed:
  • Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon

    (Department of Economics and Economic Development, School of Economics and Business, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

  • Manuel Perez-Trujillo

    (Department of Economics and Instituto de Economía Aplicada Regional (IDEAR), Universidad Católica del Norte)

  • Isabel Neira

    (Econometrics Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela)

Abstract

This paper analyses empirically the relationship between economic development and fertility. Through a new sample selection and quantile regression, it investigates whether there is an inverse J-shaped pattern between these two variables, and, if so, whether it depends on development and fertility levels. Our results confirm that the inverse J-shaped pattern exists, but only when a certain level of economic development is attained. Results also suggest an innovative finding: the J-shape depends not only on the development but also on the fertility level. The higher the fertility rate, the higher the GDP per capita needed to reverse fertility decline, and the faster the negative and positive segments of the J-shape fall and grow.

Suggested Citation

  • Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2015. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 70, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201606
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    File URL: https://sites.google.com/a/ucn.cl/wpeconomia/archivos/WP2016-06.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abrevaya, Jason & Dahl, Christian M, 2008. "The Effects of Birth Inputs on Birthweight," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 379-397.
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    Cited by:

    1. Biswajit Maitra & Dhritiman Ganguli, 2025. "Impact of fertility decline, gender, and social development on economic growth in India," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 27(2), pages 450-471, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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