IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jrs/wpaper/202306.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank profitability and central bank digital currency

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential effect of a European Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on banks’ profitability. We use a large sample of EU banks that span the period from 2007 to 2021 to assess the sensitivity of banks’ profits to the deposits. Using quantile regression, we estimate the conditional profit distribution of a representative bank. We then introduce a shock on the amount of deposits that would be replaced by the CBDC. Our results show that, for a large take-up of CBDC, there might be substantial challenges for the profitability of banks, especially for small banks, that mostly rely on deposits as a source of funding.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellia, Mario & Calès, Ludovic, 2023. "Bank profitability and central bank digital currency," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2023-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133796
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martynova, Natalya & Ratnovski, Lev & Vlahu, Razvan, 2020. "Bank profitability, leverage constraints, and risk-taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    2. Machado, José A.F. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2019. "Quantiles via moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 145-173.
    3. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Niepelt, Dirk, 2019. "On the equivalence of private and public money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-41.
    4. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    5. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    6. David Andolfatto, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 525-540.
    7. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Thierry Tressel & Ms. Rima A Turk, 2018. "Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2018/099, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Toni Ahner & Katrin Assenmacher & Peter Hoffmann & Agnese Leonello & Cyril Monnet & Davide Porcellacchia, 2024. "The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 221-274, October.
    9. Dietrich, Andreas & Wanzenried, Gabrielle, 2011. "Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 307-327, July.
    10. Leonardo Gambacorta & Michela Scatigna & Jing Yang, 2014. "Diversification and bank profitability: a nonlinear approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 438-441, April.
    11. C. T. Shehzad & J. De Haan & B. Scholtens, 2013. "The relationship between size, growth and profitability of commercial banks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1751-1765, May.
    12. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2019. "Correlated random effects models with unbalanced panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 137-150.
    13. Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Kok, Christoffer & Móré, Csaba & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2015. "Bank Profitability Challenges in Euro Area Banks: the Role of Cyclical and Structural Factors," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    15. Le, Anh H., 2022. "Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 114734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    17. Marco Petracco Giudici & Francesca Di Girolamo, 2023. "Central bank digital currency and European banks’ balance sheets," JRC Research Reports JRC132239, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Riju Joshi & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2019. "Correlated Random Effects Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables and Unbalanced Panels," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 134, pages 243-268.
    19. Elekdag, Selim & Malik, Sheheryar & Mitra, Srobona, 2020. "Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Adalid, Ramón & Álvarez-Blázquez, Álvaro & Assenmacher, Katrin & Burlon, Lorenzo & Dimou, Maria & López-Quiles, Carolina & Martín Fuentes, Natalia & Meller, Barbara & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Radulova, Pety, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and bank intermediation," Occasional Paper Series 293, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. König, Jörg & Meyer, Tim, 2025. "Der Digitale Euro: Mehrwert oder Risiko?," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 179, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elekdag, Selim & Malik, Sheheryar & Mitra, Srobona, 2020. "Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Vollmar, Steffen & Wening, Fabian, 2024. "The impact of CBDC on a deposit-dependent banking system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Sheheryar Malik & Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2019. "Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability," IMF Working Papers 2019/254, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Abad, Jorge & Nuño, Galo & Thomas, Carlos, 2025. "CBDC and the operational framework of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Azzone, Michele & Barucci, Emilio, 2023. "Evaluation of sight deposits and central bank digital currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff & Laeven, Luc & Meyer, Justus, 2025. "Consumer attitudes towards a central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 3035, European Central Bank.
    7. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.
    8. Assenmacher, Katrin & Bitter, Lea & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2811, European Central Bank.
    9. Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.
    10. Xiang, Lijin & Feng, Chao & Xiao, Zumian & Liu, Jianjian, 2024. "The impact of central bank digital currency on macroeconomic dynamics: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Beckmann, Lars & Debener, Jörn & Hark, Paul F. & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2024. "CBDC and the shadow of bank disintermediation: US stock market insights on threats and remedies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    12. Caccia, Enea & Tapking, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2024. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 345, European Central Bank.
    13. M'bakob, Gilles Brice & Tchounga, Anatole, 2024. "CBDC and banking stability: Modeling cascading effects on reserves, lending, and liquidity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    14. Dionysopoulos, Lambis & Marra, Miriam & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Central bank digital currencies: A critical review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Bindseil, Ulrich & Marrazzo, Marco & Sauer, Stephan, 2024. "The impact of central bank digital currency on central bank profitability, risk-taking and capital," Occasional Paper Series 360, European Central Bank.
    16. Dirk Niepelt, 2024. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2505-2552, August.
    17. Carli, Francesco & Uras, Burak R., 2024. "E-money, risk-sharing, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    18. Christoph Wronka, 2023. "Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and their potential impact on traditional banking and monetary policy: an initial analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 613-641, December.
    19. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Digital Currency; CBDC; ECB; bank deposits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Benczur (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.