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Bank profitability and central bank digital currency

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  • Bellia, Mario
  • Calès, Ludovic

Abstract

This paper analyses the potential effect of a European central bank digital currency (CBDC) on banks’ profitability. We use a large sample of euro area banks that spans the period from 2007 to 2021 to assess the sensitivity of banks’ profits to the deposits. Using quantile regressions, we estimate the conditional profit distribution of a representative bank. We then introduce a shock on the amount of deposits that would be replaced by the CBDC. Our results show that, for a large take-up of CBDC, there might be substantial challenges for the profitability of banks, especially for large banks and for small banks that mostly rely on deposits as a source of funding.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellia, Mario & Calès, Ludovic, 2025. "Bank profitability and central bank digital currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1042443124001719
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102105
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    Cited by:

    1. König, Jörg & Meyer, Tim, 2025. "Der Digitale Euro: Mehrwert oder Risiko?," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 179, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    2. Raza, Hassan & Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed, 2026. "A Systematic Review of Retail CBDC Design for Financial Inclusion and Payment System Modernization," EconStor Preprints 341059, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Volker Brühl, 2025. "How will the digital euro work? A preliminary analysis of design, structures, and challenges," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 35(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Volker Brühl, 2026. "The potential impact of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on the banking sector: the case of a digital euro," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 16(1), pages 215-240, March.
    5. Hui Chen & Zarina Md Nor & Rafisah Mat Radzi & Zuxia Dong & Qianhui Ren, 2026. "The impact of CBDC on bank profitability in China: an analysis based on E-CNY," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Heitmann, Dennis & Koch, Jascha-Alexander & Islam, Mohammad Saiful & Eva, Sharmin Akter, 2025. "The impact of central bank digital currencies on the financial stability of banks: Dynamic panel estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Magin, Jana Anjali & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2025. "Cash or Cache? Distributional and business cycle implications of CBDC holding limits," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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