IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Fertility, Human Development, and Economic Growth: Long- term Short-term Causal Links

  • Kurt A. Hafner
  • David Mayer-Foulkes

Within the causal structure of economic development, we can distinguish between short-term and long-term causal links. In particular, this study examines long-term short-term causal relations in economic development. We construct a balanced panel for 72 countries over the period from 1980 to 2007 and use panel unit-root and cointegration tests to find the causal structure amongst income, human development, demographic transition, technology and infrastructure, institutions and trade. In estimating the long-run relationship between cointegrated variables, we use the dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation techniques proposed by Kao and Chiang (2000) in order to avoid spurious regression results introducing leads and lags of one or two years. We find that there are long-term short-term causal links between high income, high human development and low fertility all of which we define as the developed lifestyle. We also find that technology and infrastructure, institutions and economic integration have systematic short-term impacts that promote the developed lifestyle, acting as exogenous processes.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_17/C017_024.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c017_024.

as
in new window

Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c017_024
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Niels Bohrs Vej 9, 6700 Esbjerg

Phone: +45 6550 2233
Fax: +45 6550 1090
Web page: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  2. Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2002. "R&D, Implementation and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," NBER Working Papers 9104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Arora, Suchit, 2001. "Health, Human Productivity, And Long-Term Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(03), pages 699-749, September.
  4. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
  5. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
  6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  7. Mikael Lindahl & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1101-1136, December.
  8. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David & Aghion, Philippe, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," Scholarly Articles 4481509, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Sergio T. Rebelo, 1990. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 3325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P Dorian, 1997. "Education and Health in an Effective-Labour Empirical Growth Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(223), pages 314-28, December.
  11. Tobias Heinrich, 2012. "Education, growth and technology diffusion," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 866-870.
  12. George Hondroyiannis, 2009. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty:An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Working Papers 96, Bank of Greece.
  13. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2008-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  14. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  15. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  16. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  17. Zachary Gidwitz & Martin Philipp Heger & José Pineda & Francisco Rodríguez, 2010. "Understanding Performance in Human Development: A Cross-National Study," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-42, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
  18. Tolga Omay & Mubariz Hasanov & Nuri Uçar, 2012. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nonlinear Panel Cointegration and Causality Tests," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20130, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  19. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Alain Pirotte, 2006. "Panel Unit Root Tests and Spatial Dependence," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 88, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  20. Levine, Ross, 1998. "Robert J. Barro, Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 822-824, December.
  21. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
  22. Oded_Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," Working Papers 2006-01, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  23. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  24. Quah, Danny T, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
  25. Fogel, Robert W., 1993. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1993-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
  26. James P. Neelankavil & Lonnie K. Stevans & Francisco L. Roman, 2012. "Correlates of economic growth in developing countries: a panel cointegration approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 83-96, January.
  27. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1996. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Papers 545, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  28. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  29. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  31. Dollar, David & Wolff, Edward N, 1988. "Convergence of Industry Labor Productivity among Advanced Economies, 1963-1982," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 549-58, November.
  32. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-55, July.
  33. David Mayer, 2001. "The long-term impact of health on economic growth in Mexico, 1950-1995," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 123-126.
  34. Felipa de Mello-Sampayo & Sofia de Sousa-Vale, 2010. "Tourism and Growth in European Countries: An Application of Likelihood-Based Panel Cointegration," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp0510, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  35. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4373, August.
  36. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Oded Galor, 2011. "The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 17057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Panel Unit Root Tests With Cross-Section Dependence: A Further Investigation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(04), pages 1088-1114, August.
  39. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966-2001: Empirical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 393-407, December.
  41. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  42. Malcolm D. Knight & Delano Villanueva & Norman Loayza, 1992. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth; A Panel Data Approach," IMF Working Papers 92/106, International Monetary Fund.
  43. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
  44. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  45. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
  47. Abdullahi D. Ahmed & Abu N.M. Wahid, 2011. "Financial structure and economic growth link in African countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 331-357, July.
  48. Carneiro, Pedro & Heckman, James J., 2003. "Human Capital Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 821, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  49. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  50. Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P. Dorian, 1995. "Health capital and cross-country variation in income per capita in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 99-106, April.
  51. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2000. "The Economic Burden of Malaria," CID Working Papers 52, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  52. Dierk Herzer, 2011. "Cross-country heterogeneity and the trade-income relationship," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 209, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  53. Robert W. Fogel & Larry T. Wimmer, 1992. "Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease, and Death," NBER Historical Working Papers 0038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Richard A. Easterlin & Victor R. Fuchs & Simon Kuznets, 1980. "American Population since 1940," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 275-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin peaks : growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2278, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  56. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  57. RobertJ. Willis, 1974. "Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 25-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  59. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  62. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1962. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 155-173.
  63. David M. Drukker, 2003. "Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 168-177, June.
  64. Benjamin Cheng, 1999. "Cointegration and causality between fertility and female labor participation in Taiwan: A multivariate approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(4), pages 422-434, December.
  65. Robert McNown, 2003. "A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 344-358, October.
  66. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  67. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
  68. Mayer, David, 2001. "The Long-Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1025-1033, June.
  69. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 1998. "Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 111-30, June.
  70. Peter Howitt, 2000. "Endogenous Growth and Cross-Country Income Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 829-846, September.
  71. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
  72. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "Female labor force participation and total fertility rates in the OECD: New evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality testing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 48-64, January.
  73. Schultz, T. Paul, 1997. "Assessing the productive benefits of nutrition and health: An integrated human capital approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 141-158, March.
  74. Evans, Paul, 1996. "Using cross-country variances to evaluate growth theories," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1027-1049.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c017_024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Pedersen)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.